Author: David Reimer

Sunday Mid-Afternoon Severe Weather Update

NOTE: I’m on my way back home after a conference in Denver. I will not be able to post frequent updates through 10 PM. Please utilize our interactive weather radar at texasstormchasers.com/radar and Your Local Weather at texasstormchasers.com/local for the latest information. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a category 2 risk of severe weather across Southwest Texas, South Texas, South-Central Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, northward into the eastern Big Country, western North Texas, up into portions of Northwest Texas. A category 1 risk extends east into the remainder of North Texas, the Brazos Valley, into Southeast Texas, and down into the Rio Grande Valley. Isolated thunderstorm initiation may occur within the next 2 hours across western sections of North Texas into Northwest Texas. The combination of strong wind shear and instability will support the possibility of a supercellular storm mode. The strongest of these storms may produce all modes of severe weather, including the threat for isolated tornadoes. This threat is highest west/northwest of the D/FW Metroplex up to around Wichita Falls. Jenny is out chasing and will report back with any severe weather she experiences. By this evening a fairly solid line of showers and thunderstorms will evolve from North Texas south through the Concho Valley into Southwest Texas. This line will make eastward progress tonight through Monday morning. Some storms in the line may be...

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Detailed Look at Sunday’s Severe Weather Potential

Let’s start off by showing the latest severe weather outlook for the late afternoon hours Sunday and continuing into the night-time hours. This is not anticipated to be a high-end severe weather event. However, as we’ve seen many times over the years, it only takes one misbehaving storm to cause problems – especially if that storm impacts your neighborhood. We have a category two risk of severe weather, the standard risk level from the Storm Prediction Center, for portions of North Texas and Northwest Texas. That’s the zone where we may see the relative highest chance for a couple of stronger storms. The strongest of those storms could produce localized wind gusts up to around 60 MPH and quarter size hail. A category one – marginal risk – essentially includes the eastern half of Texas. No lack of real estate, for sure! The marginal risk is where the risk for several severe storms is low, but we may see short-duration bursts of stronger wind gusts and perhaps hail up to the size of quarters. While not mentioned as a primary threat, the potential for an isolated tornado is not zero. While a few severe storms are possible with this upcoming event, the likelihood of widespread rains will be the primary impact for most folks. Localized flash flooding with heavier storms is possible. We’ll have plenty of wind shear in...

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Welcoming New Faces to our Storm Chase Team!

I’m very happy to share the news that we’ve got a couple of new faces joining the team! Alex Bartholomew, Chelsea Burnett, and Jason Cooley will be helping to expand our severe weather coverage this spring. The creation of a dedicated storm chasing group means we’ll be able to provide even more visuals of ongoing severe weather across Texas in near real-time. Research over the past several years has shown that the general public is more likely to respond to an approaching weather threat if they can actually see it. Most folks see a bunch of spilled paint when...

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Strong Storms & Heavy Rain Threats Sunday-Monday

Fire danger will be critical across parts of the Permian Basin and Trans-pecos basin this afternoon where Red Flag Warnings are inf effect. There should be no outdoor burning and extreme caution exercised when working with equipment that can produce sparks. Any fires that develop will likely require significant resources to contain. Scattered showers will continue to impact portions of Southeast Texas through the afternoon hours. This activity is not expected to become heavy or produce high-impact weather. A few locations may pick up a quarter inch of rain, but most will see between a trace and two-tenths of an inch. Precipitation should be outta the picture by this evening as our quick-hitter exits the stage. The real focus of this forecast will be our next big-whopper coming out of northern Mexico. This next system will have much more moisture to work with and will probably give us a surprise or two that isn’t anticipated in this forecast. Precipitation chances will increase throughout the day Sunday across the western two-thirds of Texas. I think most of the heavier rains will hold off until Sunday Night, but it won’t be the nicest day. Rain chances go from scattered all the way up to near 100 percent by Sunday Night across Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, with numerous/high chances in eastern sections of Northwest Texas, the eastern Concho Valley...

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Frog-strangler on the way starting Sunday through Tuesday

A relatively fast-moving upper level storm system will bring a chance of very light rain to portions of South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas late tonight through parts of Friday. The lower-levels of the atmosphere are dry, so most falling precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground. Some folks may pick up a couple hundredths of an inch of rain, but no big deal whatsoever. Saturday will be dry across Texas before we gear up for what will be a much more impactful storm system. An area of upper level low pressure will move onshore Saturday in...

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