Author Archives: David Reimer

Heading back into a Warm and Dry Pattern

Good Morning Texas! I hope you’re starting out well on this beautiful Saturday morning. Since I’m working on this blog comparatively late to my usual weekday schedule I’m able to share something rather cool.

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Here’s the visible satellite image just after 9:15 AM this morning. Our weather has calmed down considerably compared to a few days ago. We have upper level clouds moving across Southwest Texas extending into Central and South-Central Texas this morning. We should see those thin out as we head into the afternoon hours. What is really cool in this shot is shown in the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Those aren’t clouds – its the snow cover from the winter storm experienced earlier this week. Enjoy it while it lasts because that snow will rapidly melt later today.

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The reason that snow will rapidly melt away is because we’re headed back into a warmer pattern! If it wasn’t for all that snow in the Panhandle and South Plains temperatures would be warming up into the upper 50s to around 60 today. However the snow cover will keep temperatures in the 40s. That won’t be an issue in the remainder of Texas as mostly clear skies and light west winds allow for ample warming today. As usual the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas will see the warmest temperatures today with highs climbing into the mid 60s. We’ll see low 60s across South-Central, Southeast, and Central Texas. The Hill Country, Permian Basin, Northwest, North, Northeast, and East Texas will all climb into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.

Rain totals through Thursday Morning (1/29)

Rain totals through Thursday Morning (1/29)

Texas will be under an upper level ridge for at least the next 4-5 days. That means we’ll be dry and experience temperatures above-average for late January. In fact it looks like we’ll be in the 60s and 70s for the first half of the work week! Don’t take the warm weather for granted because another fairly significant arctic air outbreak looks possible around February 1.

Storm System #2 Arrives Later Today with more Rain and Snow

6PM

Good Morning Texas! Welcome to your Thursday morning edition of the Texas Weather Roundup. It’s been a long night for me as I’ve been covering the significant winter storm that impacted the Texas Panhandle last night and this morning. Amarillo ended up with 13 inches of snow with a majority of that falling in about 2.5 hours. 4 inches of snow fell in just one hour which is absolutely insane and rarely seen anywhere in North America. I wouldn’t be shocked if a paper ends up getting written regarding the meteorological event that occurred in the Panhandle (specifically Amarillo) last night. We’ve got dozens of snow pictures over on our Twitter account which you can access on the right sidebar (desktop site) or below this post if you’re on your phone. Be sure to follow us on Twitter at TxStormChasers since that is the best way to talk with us in real time. Enough about what happened last night – lets talk about what’s going to happen today!

Before I dive into our busy forecast let’s just take a quick look at what our temperatures should be around 3 PM this afternoon. I do need to point out that in areas that have snow cover I really think temperatures will struggle to rise today. Locations like the Texas Panhandle and Western/Central Oklahoma will likely not come close to the projected temperatures on this graphic because snow cover will keep temperatures from rising too much.

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We’re starting off this morning with two individual precipitation areas. One is impacting the South Plains and southern half of the Texas Panhandle with light to moderate snow. The second area if a large area of moderate rain which extends from the Red River from US-81 all the way east to Texarkana. This rain continues south from the Red River to Interstate 10 in South Texas! Talk about a large batch of rain and some happy Texans this morning. I know it’s a dreary and wet morning but we really do need the rain. Since most vegetation is dormant because its winter hopefully we can get a decent runoff of water into area lakes.

12PM

As the storm system producing all this rain begins to exit the region we should see the rain move east of I-35 later this morning and by lunchtime should be exiting the I-35 corridor from the Red River south to San Antonio. East and Southeast Texas will still be getting soaked. While the steady heavier rain will exit North Texas by early afternoon it does look like mist and/or areas of light rain will continue through the afternoon hours as a moist atmosphere remains in place. Out west in the Permian Basin a second piece of upper level energy will be entering the region and it looks like we’ll have snow falling around lunchtime from Midland and Odessa south to Fort Stockton and Interstate 10.

6PM

By dinner time the second storm system will have caused another round of widespread precipitation to develop across the Concho Valley extending east into North Texas. Rain will also still be occuring in East Texas from the storm system. All precipitation will be moving northeast today. In locations near or below freezing we’ll likely see snow or a rain/snow mix as indicated by the blue shading on the simulated radar image. This is where some snow accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible. We’ll keep an eye on things and post updates to the accumulation forecast as needed.

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Expected rain totals today and tonight are looking good along and east of I-35 across East and Southeast Texas where we could see some locations receive an additional 2+ inches of rain today. Southeast Texas was already mainly out of drought conditions and this round of rain will ensure those folks stay out of the drought for the next few weeks if they were not to receive any more rain after today. Combined with the wet snow that fell last night/this morning across the Panhandle and South Plains along with additional winter precipitation and rain expected today across Texas this has been a very beneficial storm system for our state. Hopefully we’ll see some positive response in our lakes.

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I’ve compiled a video animation from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh showing the progress of today’s weather. Keep in mind this is a weather model so it may have some errors. The video file is about 25 MB so some slower connections may need a few seconds to let it buffer.

Looking Around Texas At 4 AM CST

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After being dry slotted earlier this morning we’ve seen redevelopment of light snow across the northern South Plains and portions of the southern Texas Panhandle. This snow is no where near the intensity we saw earlier in Amarillo but it could deposit some snow over the next few hours. I believe the threat for significant snow accumulations have ended but we could definitely see an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow in the areas I just mentioned this morning. This activity is moving east.

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Light to moderate rain continues to fall across a large area this morning. We’ve got rain falling across parts of the Concho Valley, much of North Texas, much of Northeast Texas, much of East Texas, much of Central Texas, and some of South-Central and Deep South Texas. Southeast Texas has isolated shower activity right now but all this rain is heading in that general direction so a rainy day is on tap. There are some pockets of heavier rain and a few claps of thunder but no severe weather is occuring or expected today.

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Here’s what the radar will most likely look similar to by 9 AM this morning. The winter precipitation will be winding down but could still be underway across the southern Panhandle and South Plains. Widespread moderate to locally heavy rain will continue throughout the morning across North, Northeast, East, Central, South-Central, and Southeast Texas with a general movement to the east. It looks like we’ll see the rain continue into the afternoon hours before diminishing and moving east late this afternoon into this evening. I’ll have today’s complete forecast in my usual weather roundup around 6 AM.

Rain Continues To Fall This Morning; Incredible Snow Rates in Amarillo

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Scattered to widespread rain will continue most of this morning across a large portion of our state including Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, South Texas, the Hill Country, and West-Central Texas. We are starting to notice a few embedded thunderstorms in the Hill Country and Concho Valley as upper level lift increases and causes low amounts of instability to develop in the atmosphere. These isolated storms are not expected to be severe but don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble or two of thunder and maybe some very small hail. All this precipitation is being caused by a strong upper level low located in eastern New Mexico early this morning. Most activity is moving northeast and we should continue to see redevelopment of rain this morning over areas that are getting it now. Honestly the radar will probably look similar in a few hours rain-wise as it does now except we may see more rain develop across Central Texas that’ll move into East Texas. This is a good soaking rain and just what the doctor ordered.

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Very heavy snow continues to fall in a narrow convective band extending from Hereford northeast into Amarillo, Panhandle, to near Shamrock. Snowfall rates have approached 4 inches per HOUR in Amarillo and there is now over 10 inches of snow accumulated. With very heavy snow continuing there’s a good possibility some of Amarillo will top a foot of snow this morning. This band is nearly stationary but is making very slow progress to the south. Light to moderate snow continues to fall across much of the Texas Panhandle with snow rates of 0.5 inches to 1.0 inches per hour in most cases. An interesting development is the dry slow that has moved into the South Plains. This dry slot is quickly causing snow to end in the South Plains including Lubbock. A dry slot is somewhat typical of these low pressure systems. Unfortunately for snow fans this means a bust of the accumulation forecast and only a fraction of what was expected to fall. We may see light snow move back into the South Plains later this morning but the threat for higher end snow totals has ended.

Significant Winter Storm Underway across Panhandle & South Plains

Lets start out by taking a look at some of the photos coming in on Twitter this evening out of the Panhandle!

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A significant winter storm is now underway across the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. The rain/snow line is approaching the city of Lubbock where we’ve just heard of several reports of snow in the city. Surface temperatures will initially remain above freezing it won’t take long for the wet snow to start accumulating on grassy and elevated surfaces. Where heavier snow bands set up tonight they could produce one to two inches of snow per hour. We’ve seen one of these bands just north of Amarillo and its possible it could shift south into the city and Interstate 40. Roads in the Panhandle and northern South Plains are snow-packed and slick with travel strongly discouraged tonight through the morning hours on Thursday. Snow will begin to taper off near sunrise in the Panhandle and South Plains with light snow remaining possible through the morning hours. The heavier snow will move east into West-Central Texas as indicated by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Here are several images depicting the HRRR’s timing on tonight’s winter weather. The times are in the top-right part of the graphics in EST (so subtract an hour to get CST).

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Jenny will have a separate article out at 9:30 PM detailing the rainy side of this system impacting other portions of Texas.

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A Winter Storm Warning for Heavy Snow is in effect tonight through Thursday evening for most of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Trans-Pecos and Davis Mountains including Dalhart, Dumas, Borger, Perryton, Pampa, Amarillo, Hereford, Dimitt, Plainview, Lubbock, Littlefield, Morton, Post, Seminole, Midland, Odessa, Pecos, Van Horn, Fort Stockton, Fort Davis, Marfa, and Alpine. Snow accumulations will vary depending on the location but the western Texas Panhandle could see up to a foot of snow.

A Winter Weather Advisory for Snow in portions of the Permian Basin, West-Central Texas, Northwest Texas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle including Shamrock, Clarendon, Childress, Matador, Guthrie, Vernon, Crowell, Quanah, Wichita Falls, Aspermont, Snyder, Sweetwater, Big Spring, and Big Lake. In addition extreme West Texas including El Paso are also included. Snow accumulations will vary on location but amounts and impacts are expected to be less than the Winter Storm Warning.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for a portion of the Concho Valley including Abilene and San Angelo. This will likely be converted to a Winter Weather Advisory later tonight for the chance of light snow accumulations with some travel impacts on elevated surfaces.

A Rain/Snow mix is possible northwest and west of the D/FW Metroplex tonight and THursday morning where minor snow accumulation on grassy surfaces will be possible. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing and travel impacts are not expected in this area. There is a light chance for snow Thursday Night across much of North Texas including the D/FW Metroplex where we may see a dusting to half an inch of snow accumulate on grassy surfaces. No travel impacts are expected at this time. One caveat is if we see a band of heavier snow develop and move over an area for an extended period of time.

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