David began chasing storms in the fall of 2008 just as mobile technology was emerging. After only chasing part-time in the 2013 & 2014 seasons he is looking forward to the 2015 spring storm season! His chase partner just so happens to be the love of his life, Paige Burress!
Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday, May 27
Wednesday, 27 May 2015 06:27
I really don’t like it when my forecast is a bad one – but that’s what happened yesterday. We saw a few severe storms fire up as expected in western North Texas during the afternoon hours. What I didn’t expect was the widespread strong/severe storm development that produced wind damage and flooding in the D/FW Metroplex, North Texas, and even parts of East Texas. Truthfully I haven’t even had a chance to look and see what caused that yet. All I can figure is we had an outflow boundary left over from Monday’s storms that helped break the cap and ignite more widespread storm development. This will be an interesting forecast to look back on once the weather calms down and I have time for studying.
We’re expecting more isolated severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. Today’s target area will be the eastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, Northwest Texas, into NOrth Texas. Like on Tuesday wind shear values will be on the weaker side but the atmosphere will be strongly unstable. Once we see thunderstorms initiate they could go up in a hurry. The strongest storms could produce large hail up to the size of baseballs, 70 MPH wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Slow storm motions will also result in the threat for localized flooding. I don’t expect widespread thunderstorm development today but like Tuesday proved we should always expect the unexpected. It’s possible we may see a cluster of storms fire up like Tuesday evening somewhere in the risk area. If that occurs it would possess a threat for damaging wind gusts and flooding. We’ll have to look at weather data later this morning to determine how everything is coming together. This is typical for late May in Texas. A few severe storms in the afternoon into early evening hours. We’re not talking a severe weather or tornado outbreak – just the typical isolated afternoon issues.
Tornado Watch for Northwest/Western North Texas until 10 PM
Tuesday, 26 May 2015 15:01
A tornado watch has been issued for Northwest Texas and western North Texas until 10 PM. This watch includes the cities of Wichita Falls, Abilene, and Mineral Wells, just to name a few. While thunderstorm coverage will likely remain low, significant severe weather is possible with those storms that do develop. Hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. We’re out chasing today so hopefully we’ll have something to show a bit later on!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY…EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELL STORM MODES ANTICIPATED. WHILE
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD…THE INTERACTION OF
THESE STORMS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF WICHITA
FALLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Lunchtime Severe Weather Forecast Update
Tuesday, 26 May 2015 11:43
A couple severe thunderstorms are expected to develop after 3 PM in western North Texas. The number of storms will be low due to no major lifting mechanism. While the severe weather threat will be spatially limited due to the limited number of storms those that do fire up could be intense. The atmosphere will be extremely unstable and supportive of rapid intensification once we see a thunderstorm develop. Higher-end severe weather with softball size hail, 70-80 MPH winds, and tornadoes will be possible with the strongest storms today. Once again we’re not expecting many storms today but those that do form could be intense. At this time the most likely area to see a few severe thunderstorms is in Northwest Texas south into the Big Country. Those storms would slowly progress east into western North Texas. A strong cap is in place over the D/FW Metroplex so storms should weaken as they approach I-35 if they can even make it that far east early this evening.
Severe Weather Outlook for May 26, 2015
Tuesday, 26 May 2015 06:27
The severe weather threat today is conditional on thunderstorm development. At this time it looks like we could have thunderstorms fire up by late afternoon from the eastern Texas Panhandle southeast into Northwest and western North Texas. There remains some question on exactly where thunderstorms will fire up. Some indications are storms may fire up closer to Shamrock and Childress. Meanwhile there are a few other models that develop thunderstorms along a boundary in western North Texas. We’ll refine that aspect of the forecast later today when mesoscale details be clear. Regardless of where we see a few storms fire up this afternoon they’ll be in an extremely unstable environment. Mid and upper level winds will be fairly weak today but that will be offset partially by the extreme instablity. Low level winds will also be marginal for tornado production but directional shear will be decent along with speed shear. Combined with the instablity values any sustained supercell will be capable of producing significant severe weather. Giant hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts over 75 MPH, and tornadoes will be possible. While those threats sound significant the limiting number of storms will keep the severe weather threat fairly localized. A vast majority of Texans won’t see anything today but those that do end up under one of the storms this afternoon or evening could have extreme impacts.
Otherwise it’s going to be a very warm and humid day. All the rain that has fallen over the past few weeks will ensure today feels like a typical Florida day with high humidity.
Flash Flood Emergency Continues for Houston Metropolitan Area
Tuesday, 26 May 2015 02:27
Flash Flood Emergency counties for the Houston Metropolitan Area. 6 to 11 inches of rain has fallen since 8 PM last evening. Significant and widespread flooding continues with numerous bayous and streams out of their banks. Several roads, including primary interstates, are flooded and impassable. Unless advised to evacuate by local emergency officials it is strongly advised you shelter in place until water recedes.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
221 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015
…FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF HARRIS AND FORT BEND
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
* UNTIL 415 AM CDT
* AT 220 AM CDT…RAIN GAUGES HAVE MEASURED BETWEEN 6 AND 11 INCHES
IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR PORTIONS OF HARRIS AND FORT
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
PASADENA…SUGAR LAND…MISSOURI CITY…DEER PARK…ROSENBERG…
STAFFORD…SOUTH HOUSTON…BELLAIRE…WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE…
RICHMOND…GALENA PARK…JACINTO CITY…JERSEY VILLAGE…HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE…BUNKER HILL VILLAGE…PINEY POINT VILLAGE…
ASTRODOME AREA…SPRING VALLEY…GREATER FIFTH WARD AND FIRST
THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE FLEEING AN AREA
SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.