Author Archives: David Reimer

About David Reimer

David began chasing storms in the fall of 2008 just as mobile technology was emerging. After only chasing part-time in the 2013 & 2014 seasons he is looking forward to the 2015 spring storm season! His chase partner just so happens to be the love of his life, Paige Burress!

David Reimer

Rain & Storms Expected Today; Heat Dome Returns Later This Week

Simulated radar forecast through early Monday evening. 11Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) from WeatherBell.com

Simulated radar forecast through early Monday evening. 11Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) from WeatherBell.com

Simulated radar forecast through early Monday evening. 11Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) from WeatherBell.com

We’re starting the work week off with rain across parts of Northwest Texas into the Permian Basin. This activity is slowly moving southeast with moderate rain and a few cloud to ground lightning strikes. A general weakening trend will be noted through late morning before most of the activity dissipates. Light rain may try to make it as far east as the western sections of the D/FW Metroplex – but it shouldn’t amount to much. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin as we see the atmosphere become a bit more unstable.

Forecast chance of rain/storms through 7 PM Monday

Forecast chance of rain/storms through 7 PM Monday

Forecast chance of rain/storms from 7 PM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday

Forecast chance of rain/storms from 7 PM Monday through 7 AM Tuesday

Coverage of thunderstorms should approach a 35 to 60 percent mark (a 6 in 10 chance of getting wet). A marginal severe weather risk is possible in the form of gusty winds and hail this afternoon and early evening up in the Texas Panhandle. Widespread severe weather is not in the picture today. Storms later today will move in a southeasterly direction with locally heavy rainfall possible across West Texas, Permian Basin, and the Texas Panhandle.

High temperature forecast for Monday, August 3

High temperature forecast for Monday, August 3

Folks in the Texas Panhandle are going to have another cool day compared to the rest of Texas with high temperatures in the 80s. The remainder of Texas will climb into the 90s with the hottest locations breaking 100 degrees. Laredo’s high temperature this afternoon is expected to top 105 degrees. San Angelo and parts of the D/FW Metroplex should hit triple digits along with some unlucky folks in East Texas. Humidity values are on the rise after a reprieve this past weekend. Heat index values will become elevated this week.

Low temperature forecast for tonight into Tuesday morning

Low temperature forecast for tonight into Tuesday morning

It’ll be another seasonably cool night in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas with lows in the 60s along with the Alpine Mountains. Mid to upper 70s are in the forecast across the Hill Country and the rest of Texas. Deep South Texas will stay in the 80s most of tonight. I hope you enjoyed the little cool front this past weekend. After temporarily weakening late last week the heat dome is coming back with avengence. The hottest temperatures so far this summer should arrive in Texas for the latter half of the work week. Get ready for several days of toasty hot conditions.

Abnormally Dry Conditions Return to East & Central Texas

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Abnormally dry conditions have returned to parts of Texas. After record-breaking rains in May and June the month of July has been abnormally dry across the eastern half of Texas. Select locations in central Texas have not recorded a drop of rain throughout the month of July. On the other side of the spectrum portions of West Texas, the Texas Panhandle, south into the Concho Valley experienced episodes of heavy rain. The good news is over 99% of Texas remains out of an official drought designation. Watersheds remain in good shape across most of Texas, with notable exceptions in the Hill Country, Concho Valley, and locations that missed out on rains this year. There was no question we needed a break from the flooding rains to allow rivers and tributaries to stabilize. However medium to long range weather model guidance does not indicate any widespread precipitation chances over the next 10 days. As we head into the first week of August the heat down will build back into the state along with the southern plains of the United States. Temperatures will once again increase with the possibility of triple digit heat index values. Even with parts of the state experiencing no rain in July we remain in relatively good shape.

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The record-breaking rains back in May and June it allowed us to break a five-year drought and help fill watersheds. With an El Niño continuing into the winter months we should see above average precipitation this winter along with the possibility of below average temperatures. It’s worth noting below average temperatures this winter does not mean we’re going to be cold or bitterly cold all the time. There will be periods of warm and dry weather – just like we’ve seen this summer.

Experimental long range weather model guidance indicates we may have a shot at a pattern change in the second half of August towards early September. Should the pattern change verify we may see the possibility of increased precipitation chances – but all of that is out in voodoo land right now. Time will tell but the first week of August looks dry, hot, and humid. Winter grasses have dried out and the danger for grass fires is on the rise.

Scattered Thunderstorms & Slightly ‘Less Hot’ Today

Chance of Rain/Storms Today

Our main focus with today’s forecast will be the possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast today across Central, Southeast, North, and Northwest Texas. More widespread thunderstorm development is expected across the Texas Panhandle. The strongest storms may briefly produce ~45 MPH wind gusts and localized heavy rain. Severe thunderstorms are not on the agenda today. Isolated storms will remain possible until late this evening across South Texas, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, West-Central Texas, and Northwest Texas. Thunderstorms will continue to occur across the Panhandle into the nighttime hours tonight. Be happy if you get a storm or have one near by since it should help cool things off.

Chance of Rain/Storms Tonight

Chance of Rain/Storms Tonight

Chance of Rain/Storms Today

Chance of Rain/Storms Today

Temperatures today across the Texas Panhandle will be cool with highs only in the mid 80s. Outside of the Panhandle high temperatures will be 1 to 3 degrees below Thursday’s peak values. However heat index values will remain elevated and oppressive. Short-term relief may be attained by those who end up with storms near them and rain-cooled outflow boundaries. Temperatures will actually drop to a comfortable value tonight across Texas.

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Looking Ahead to August Weather Prospects

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July was a welcome respite from the extremely active April, May, and June experienced in Texas. Unlike those three months, we did not have any tornado outbreaks, historic flash flooding, or tropical cyclones impact our state. It is not a surprise that temperatures have warmed up in the absence of widespread rain and cloud cover. Typically, the hottest temperatures are experienced in early August before average temperatures begin to slowly fall. Even though an El Nino is in place we still have typical seasons – including the dreaded summer. I think you’ll find that even though it’s been warm, this summer has nothing on the ones from 2011 or 2012. The dry weather wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. Flooded locations have been able to dry out and work on recovery. On the other side of the spectrum the Texas Panhandle and the Concho Valley received above average precipitation. Amarillo and San Angelo experienced flash flooding at points in July along with rises in local tributaries.  Far West Texas, including El Paso, had several days of thunderstorms with the monsoon in full force during the early and middle parts of the month.

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July and August typically are the hottest two months in Texas. It should not come as a surprise that it was hot this month. Compared to the summers of 2011 and 2012, this year doesn’t even compare in terms of heat or drought. Most of Texas will end the month with slightly below or at average temperatures for July. East and Southeast Texas were slightly above average in the temperature department likely due to higher dew point/humidity values. No doubt July was hot but in terms of Texas heat we’ve been lucky this summer.

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Let’s take a look into our August weather prospects. Weather model guidance indicates that our upper air pattern will remain fairly stagnant for the first ten days of August. The primary upper air flow and Jetstream will remain well to our north in the Dakotas and Northeast United States. A heat ridge or area of high pressure will keep our weather hot, humid, and with no widespread chances for rain. Temperatures will remain around the levels they’ve been at for the past two weeks into the first week of August. Depending on which weather model you use it looks like the heat ridge may begin to weaken towards the middle of August. Anything farther out than ten days is weather model voodoo land and typically will change from run to run. An experimental ultra long-range weather model keeps the heat ridge in place through most of August. That same experimental model does show some relief by the last week of August with a pattern change. I wouldn’t bet a penny on it but we can all hope.

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Remember that Mother Nature has a mind of her own. We can try all we want to accurately forecast, but in the end always expect the unexpected.

Thunderstorm Chances Increasing Tonight and Friday

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Thursday will be a toasty one across the eastern two-thirds of Texas with high temperatures in the 97-103F degree range. The lucky folks will be where clouds and rain chances keep temperatures cooler today. Those few lucky folks in the Texas Panhandle and South Plains will see high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

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Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Northwest Texas, Northeast, and East Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast for Southeast Texas and those along the coast.

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Shower and thunderstorm chances continue tonight across all areas mentioned above. A rouge shower will also be possible across Central and North Texas. Low temperatures tonight will be in relatively same window as we saw this morning, perhaps a degree or two cooler.

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The weather forecast becomes more active on Friday with scattered thunderstorms forecast in the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Hill Country. The strongest storms may produce 40 MPH wind gusts, localized heavy rain, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. A positive note will be nearby storms should help cool things off with rain-cooled outflow boundaries. High temperatures will still be in the 90s to lower 100s – but some folks may be down in the low-mid 80s by late afternoon as popcorn storms help cool things off. Remember that lightning is dangerous and unpredictable – move indoors to a safe shelter if a storm approaches your location.

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