Author Archives: David Reimer

Travel Nightmare in the Northeast USA on Wednesday

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A strong early-season winter storm is forecast to impact portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States on Wednesday. With cold air in place there is the expectation that a significant winter storm will occur in the colder air with rain closer to the coast. The specific accumulation totals and rain/snow line will depend on how close the low passes to the coast. Considering we’re a Texas weather website I won’t go into details on the whole meteorological setup and thinking. I will say that the major airline hubs from Washington DC north to New York and Boston will likely experience significant delays and issues on Wednesday. Those delays will probably cascade across the country. With Wednesday one of the busiest travel days of the year I’m afraid Wednesday is going to become a nightmare for some travelers.

The best source for weather information regarding the upcoming winter storm will be from the National Weather Service. Head on over to www.weather.gov and select the region you’re interested in for current and upcoming weather. Here is the National Weather Service snow accumulation forecast as of this evening. There will be adjustments to the forecast however major travel impacts are expected across the Mid-Atlantic north into New England.

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Flash Flood Warning for Austin Metro & Surrounding Suburbs

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A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Hays County, Travis County, and Williamson County in South-Central Texas. This includes Wimberley, San Marcos, Dripping Springs, Austin, Tanglewood Forest, Pflugerville, Taylor, Round Rock, Granger, Georgetown, and Cedar Park. A line of strong thunderstorms will slowly progress east over the next few hours. These storms will drop heavy rain on already saturated ground from the storms earlier today. Flash flooding is probable in Austin and rapid redevelopment of flood conditions is probable as storms move into the city. Do NOT drive into water-covered roadways or around barricades. You never know how deep or fast moving the water is at night. An observer near Dripping Springs just reported .81 inches of rain in only 15 minutes. That will cause rapid development of flooding!

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
721 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…WIMBERLEY…SAN MARCOS…DRIPPING
SPRINGS…
TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…AUSTIN…TANGLEWOOD FOREST…
PFLUGERVILLE…
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…TAYLOR…ROUND ROCK…
GRANGER…GEORGETOWN AND CEDAR PARK…

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST

* AT 708 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF HAYS…TRAVIS AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. THE HEAVY RAINS RECEIVED EARLIER TODAY ALONG
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL MAKE RAPID FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AUSTIN…
GEORGETOWN…WIMBERLEY…SUN CITY…LIBERTY HILL…LEANDER…
JARRELL…HUTTO…GRANGER DAM… GEORGETOWN DAM…FLORENCE…
PFLUGERVILLE…INTERSTATE 35 AND HIGHWAY 71.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY…COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS…STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

7 PM Texas Weather Update & Summary

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* Moderate rain continues to fall across North Texas and the D/FW Metroplex. There is no lightning detected in this activity and no severe weather is expected. Roads will be wet in D/FW this evening so use some common sense while driving. Rain should move out east by 11 PM.

* Thunderstorms have begun to redevelop west of I-35 from Temple south to Austin and San Marcos. This activity is making slow progress to the east and could exacerbate the flooding that was going on earlier in Austin. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

* A line of thunderstorms from just south of Kerrville to Hondo will move east towards San Antonio. This line will likely move into the SAT Metro by 9 PM.

* Two severe thunderstorms from Crystal City to 20 miles southwest of Crystal City continue to move east at 30 MPH. Quarter size hail and damaging winds up to 60 MPH will be possible with these storms in addition to heavy rain.

* Strong thunderstorms are moving east into the Rio Grande Valley from Alice, Falfurrias, Vibroas, to Rio Grande City. This activity is moving east with small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect and a few severe storms are possible.

* Moderate to locally heavy rainfall continues to fall across East and Southeast Texas. Activity will continue to increase this evening with localized minor flooding possible. Severe weather is not anticipated in this area at this time. We will be watching Southeast Texas near the coast for signs of storm intensification. That’s where instability values are highest at this time.

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Here’s what the High Resolution Rapid Refresh shows at 10 PM this evening. We continue to think most activity will be pushing east of I-35 from Dallas south to Austin and San Antonio by this point. By 11 PM most activity should be east of I-35 with folks west of I-35 drying out. Moderate to locally heavy rain and thunderstorms will be widespread across East Texas and Southeast Texas. More isolated activity may continue at this point across South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

* Fog is being reported in parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. It could become locally dense but should begin to clear out by 3 AM as drier air moves into the region.

Flash Flood Watch for Central/South-Central TX

Flash Flood Watch issued for parts of Central and South-Central Texas until midnight. This includes Llano, Marble Falls, Round Rock, Georgetown, Austin, Kyle, New Braunfels, San Antonio, Seguin, Gonzales, Bastrop, La Grange, and Hallettsville. This watch has been issued due to concerns about flash flooding this evening as another round of thunderstorms moved into the area. Heavy rain earlier today saturated ground soils across the area which means any rain that falls this evening will likely run-off and contribute to a flooding threat.

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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

…FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS EVENING DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL…

.MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING…AND MUCH
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TAKING AIM OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE…AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PLACES THAT DEVELOP FLOODING WITH ONLY 1 INCH
DOWNPOURS. A FEW LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY DEVELOP MINOR
FLOODING WHICH COULD EXTEND TRAVEL HAZARDS PAST MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER…THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE AT
MIDNIGHT AS THE STORM ACTIVITY MOVES INTO EAST TEXAS.

TXC021-029-031-053-055-091-149-177-187-209-285-287-299-453-491-
230600-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0007.141122T2340Z-141123T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-FAYETTE-GONZALES-
GUADALUPE-HAYS-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BASTROP…SAN ANTONIO…BLANCO…
BURNET…LOCKHART…NEW BRAUNFELS…LA GRANGE…GONZALES…
SEGUIN…SAN MARCOS…HALLETTSVILLE…GIDDINGS…LLANO…AUSTIN…
GEORGETOWN
540 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS…BASTROP…BEXAR…BLANCO…BURNET…CALDWELL…COMAL…
FAYETTE…GONZALES…GUADALUPE…HAYS…LAVACA…LEE…LLANO…
TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT

* SATURATED SOILS…WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

* FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND URBAN AREAS. A FEW LARGER STREAMS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL FOR A FEW HOURS…LEADING TO ROAD CLOSURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA…PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

Heavy Rain moving into D/FW; Severe Threat Increasing in RGV

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A large area of heavy rain is moving east across western North Texas. This area will move east into the D/FW Metroplex with an increase in rainfall intensity over the next hour. Average rain accumulations through this evening will be half an inch up to two inches in North Texas. Severe weather is not anticipated but very heavy rain will cause some driving difficulties.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is more isolated in Central and South Texas. A severe thunderstorm is approaching Uvalde from the west with wind gusts up to 70 MPH possible. Another severe thunderstorm near Zapata is producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. All activity is is moving east and will continue to do so over the next few hours. We could see additional thunderstorms develop in Central/South-Central Texas over the next few hours.

Here’s the forecast for the next few hours into the evening hours…

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* By 10 PM most shower and thunderstorm activity should be along and east of I-35 with precipitation ending west of I-35. Activity should be moving east of the D/FW Metroplex by 10-11 PM.

* Localized flooding is possible this evening in areas where heavy thunderstorms move over the same areas that received or receive heavy rain today. The flooding threat is not expected to be widespread or significant.

* The severe weather threat is increasing in Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. A supercell thunderstorm with hail up to the size of baseballs is in Zapata County now. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity should increase over the next few hours as storms move east. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. One or two brief tornadoes are not out of the question.

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