Author: David Reimer

Scattered storms increasing in coverage through mid-afternoon

Isolated showers are already underway across the Texas Panhandle south into West Texas. This activity is moving in a rather atypical fashion – southeast to northwest. You can thank a weak area of low pressure off the Southeast Texas coast for the weird storm direction. Speaking of that low – it is causing rain along the Southeast Texas coast. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is suggesting some heavier activity may move inland into Southeast Texas this afternoon. Any heavier activity that develops or moves onshore will move to the northwest and could produce locally heavy rains. Meanwhile, we’ll see an uptick in activity in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, and the Borderland this afternoon and this evening. The HRRR shows plenty of activity later this afternoon which is a reasonable expectation given we already have development underway. Some of this afternoon’s and evening’s activity may produce locally heavy rain. Localized flash flooding could occur where we see a couple inches of rain or where heavy rain falls in areas that have already seen their fair share of it over the past couple of days.   Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue/develop today across much of Texas. It would be easier to say where the chance of rain is lower, more isolated. Those areas with isolated (lower) rain chances will be along and north of Interstate 20/30 in...

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Plenty of Showers/Storms Today; Tropics Extremely Active

Localized flash flooding was an issue overnight in places like Andrews and east of Amarillo where some road closures were reported. No Flash flood warnings are in effect at the time of this post, but residual high water will continue to be an issue throughout the day in location that have or will receive additional heavy rains. Widespread light to moderate rain is falling across West Texas into the Permian Basin. Rain intensity has lightened across the eastern Texas Panhandle. Finally we’re watching an area of heavy rain just off the coast of Southeast Texas associated with a weak...

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Hit and Miss Showers Developing By Early Afternoon

Light rain is moving west across Southeast Texas this morning. The rain shield is associated with moisture from a weak tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico – not to be confused with Invest 99L. As temperatures continue their daily climb toward afternoon highs we should see an uptick in coverage by the early afternoon hours. The best chance for scattered showers will be along and east of Interstate 35 in North, Central, Northeast, East, Southeast Texas into the Brazos Valley. This activity will be moving west – the opposite of what you typically see activity move in our state. Each individual shower should only last 30-60 minutes before raining itself out, but the outflow from the dissipating showers will help spark off new activity. This process will continue through the late afternoon before coverage starts to decrease. As the title of this posts suggests these will be hit or miss. Most folks will likely be dry today. The stronger pulse storms may produce localized wind gusts over 40 MPH and brief heavy rain. Severe weather is not expected. Afternoon thunderstorms will also increase in coverage across the Permian Basin later today. This activity may become strong with localized gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Movement will be to the northeast, albit slowly. Activity should decrease by the early evening as we start to lose some of the daytime...

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Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Storm Chances Spread East Today

The radar is active this morning with several different areas of convection ongoing. The most obvious is in Southeast Texas thanks to a weak low pressure area sitting in the western Gulf of Mexico. Not to be confused with Invest 99L southeast of Florida, this low pressure off our coast is not expected to become a tropical cyclone. However, it will act as a catalyst to bring even more moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico today. Light to moderate rain is just above to move into Houston from the east and rain chances will continue throughout the day. We have light showers ongoing across the Permian Basin into West- Texas, and the Texas Panhandle this morning as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today in Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, North Texas, and further west in the Permian Basin. Isolated activity will be possible across all areas not mentioned above, although with lower coverage and chances. The highest chances of rain today will be in the eastern third of Texas thanks to copious amounts of moisture advecting inland from the Gulf of Mexico. As temperatures warm into the upper 80s by the early afternoon our convective temperatures will be reached. Put another way, the atmosphere will be warm enough to erode any sort of cap and we’ll see thunderstorm development occur....

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Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 1 severe weather risk. SPC uses a five-level risk system – 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest. Risk levels are determined on the overall aerial coverage of severe weather expected along with the threat of higher-end severe weather. For now we have the lowest of five levels in place. This marginal risk of severe weather includes the Permian Basin, South Plains, Rolling Plains, Northwest Texas, the Caprock, and the eastern two-thirds of the Texas Panhandle. We do note that a category 2 severe weather risk isn’t that far off in Oklahoma, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see portions of the Panhandle upgraded to a category 2 risk in later outlooks today. The primary severe weather threats with the strongest storms will be damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH and hail up to the size of quarters. Wind shear values in the Panhandle may support a few stronger hail cores so we’ll have to keep an eye out for larger hail potential. The best chance for scattered thunderstorms today will be in two regions – west and east. The Concho Valley, Big Country, North Texas, and South Texas will be surrounded by rain chances, but should remain dry. Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are expected today across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling plains, Permian Basin, Pecos...

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