Author: David Reimer

Damaging Winds & Extreme Fire Risk Western Parts of Texas Today

A strong upper level storm system will bring a variety of significant weather impacts to the western half of Texas today. The foremost of which will be very strong winds. Surface wind gusts over 55 MPH are expected in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and the Borderland. Some of these wind gusts will be strong enough to produce wind damage, such as downed power lines. Widespread blowing is a good bet with the possibility of visibility reductions. All of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, Trans-Pecos, and Borderland are included in a High Wind Warning....

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Increased Severe Weather Probabilities for North/Northeast TX

The gist of the forecast remains unchanged from our blog posted about an hour ago. The Storm Prediction Center has just added a category 2 risk of severe weather across North and Northeast Texas. This is to account for the threat of large hail from the strongest storms. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out if a strong supercell interacts with a surface boundary. Otherwise, no changes are needed to our previous forecast. A severe thunderstorm watch may be issued shortly for some of the aforementioned regions. Read the previous, detailed blog...

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Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today & Tuesday; High-End Fire Danger in the West

Meteorological spring may not officially start until Wednesday, but then again, that hasn’t really mattered this winter. It seems fitting then that instead of discussing the chance of cold, we’ll be chatting about the potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon, and again on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of North Texas, all of Northeast Texas, and East Texas north of a Waco to Nacogdoches line in a marginal risk of severe weather today. This primarily covers the mid-morning hours through the afternoon. As a reminder, a marginal risk is the lowest of five levels with the severe weather risk system. It doesn’t mean the threat of severe weather is low per-say, it indicates that the coverage of any storms should be lower. That’s what we’re expecting today as we may only see one or two storms develop. However, those one or two storms that do develop could be severe with a risk of large, damaging hail and strong winds. The risk of a tornado is very low, but can’t be completely zeroed out. A warm front is lifting north across Central Texas this morning. This front may become a focus point for isolated storm development later this morning. Let me be clear – the development of thunderstorms is not guaranteed. This is a conditional risk that we’re sharing, since...

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Brief Return to Winter Tonight and Saturday; Spring Storms Possible Monday & Tuesday

As of 9 AM a cold front extends into Southwest Texas – Central Texas – into far Northeast Texas. North of this front temperatures have fallen into the 20s across the Texas Panhandle with blustery northwest winds. Wind chills are down into the teens and single digits. Further south and east temperatures are in the 40s in the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and North Texas. This front will continue to push south through the day, helping to bring cooler temperatures and northerly winds. Those who are south of the front this morning will experience their high temperatures before the frontal passage. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s once the front arrives at your location. Temperatures in the Texas Panhandle will struggle to climb out of the 40s this afternoon as northerly winds continue to pump in the cooler air. As stated above, the high temperature for the day at your location will occur right before the cold front’s arrival. Depending on your location, that could be in the next hour, or it could be late tonight. Either way it’ll be another hot day along the coast, into South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Tonight is when we’re going to see a bit of winter return to more of Texas. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s north of a line extending from the Trans-Pecos Basin...

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Dangerous Wildfire Outbreak Possible Today and Record High Temperatures

Record high temperatures are expected across much of Texas this afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s into the lower 100s. Yes, portions of South Texas will make it up into the triple digits today. Laredo is forecast to climb to 102° and McAllen up to 100°. No, we don’t usually see triple digit heat in February. Also of note, if D/FW makes it up to 90° this afternoon it’ll be the third earliest on record. So, it’ll be hot today. It will be hot for February and it will be pretty hot for a May afternoon as well. Yet the heat isn’t our main concern. The overall weather pattern is setting up to support a classic Southern Plains wildfire outbreak this afternoon. The combination of a jet-streak aloft, very low humidity values as the surface, and above-average temperatures will all come together to support a high-end fire weather potential. This risk is highest where an extremely critical fire weather risk has been issued. This extremely critical zone includes all of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, western Oklahoma, West Texas, into northern sections of the Permian Basin. These extremely critical risks are relatively rare and are not issued very often. I realize that folks don’t tend to take fire weather danger as seriously as severe weather or flooding, but this is a serious risk. We’ve seen devastating wildfires...

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