Author Archives: David Reimer

Near-Critical Fire Danger in Southwest TX & RGV on Saturday

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Elevated to near-critical fire danger will return to portions of Texas on Saturday. An area of enhanced fire danger has been highlighted in the Rio Grande Valley, Deep South Texas, into Southwest Texas for Saturday afternoon. This risk runs roughly along and south of a Del Rio to San Antonio line. Fuels are dry across much of Texas but that is the region where weather conditions will help promote an increased risk of fast-moving fires.

18Z North American Model - Relative humidity values mid-afternoon on Saturday

18Z North American Model – Relative humidity values mid-afternoon on Saturday

By early Saturday afternoon we expect temperatures to rise into the low and mid 60s in the regions mentioned previously. Relative humidity values are expected to drop below 20 percent. We do note that RH values will drop below 30 percent across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Big Country, Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and Hill Country. The reason those locations are not currently highlighted is due to relatively light winds. If a fire develops anywhere it could spread. The fire weather outlooks highlight danger presented by vegetation moisture, relative humidity values, surface temperatures, and wind speed.

18Z North American Model - projected surface winds mid-afternoon on Saturday

18Z North American Model – projected surface winds mid-afternoon on Saturday

Winds tomorrow afternoon will increase to around 20 MPH out of the northwest across South-Central Texas, South Texas, the Coastal Plains, and the Rio Grande Valley. Increased cloudiness and the chance for a few sprinkles will keep RH values higher across North and Central Texas into the Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas. It certainly is possible we could see an elevated fire danger expand northwest/north from the current outlook.

Fire departments in Southwest Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley should be prepared for active fire weather conditions on Saturday.Click To TweetAny fire that develops will have the potential to spread quickly and require additional resources to contain. Northwest winds will promote active heads to the south and east.

Increasing Clouds Today & Your Weekend Weather Outlook

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Good morning Texas and whoever else might be visiting us this morning. Congratulations on surviving the work-week and welcome to Friday. I realize some of you might not have the traditional work schedule but look on the bright side. At least traffic isn’t nearly as bad on the weekend. I’m in Austin this weekend for a weather conference and had the ‘pleasure’ of driving in their rush hour last night. It goes without saying I don’t wish that on anyone. This isn’t a traffic blog so lets get on to the weather forecast.

This Morning

Temperatures this morning are quite cold again across Texas. The good news is we’ll warm up quite efficiently after sunrise and into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will peak near average for February 5. It may not be in the 70s but it certainly could be much colder. Five years ago I was covering the second round of winter weather in the D/FW Metroplex with the super bowl in town. With wind chills below zero I think we can all be thankful with today’s weather.

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This afternoon and evening

High temperatures this afternoon will actually peak in the low 70s across the Rio Grande Valley. 60s are expected across South-Central Texas and the Coastal Plains. Upper 50s to right around 60 degrees is the forecast across the Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. As usual the coolest readings in the state will be across the South/Rolling Plains and Texas Panhandle where the peak afternoon temperatures will be in the 40s. Clouds will be on the increase by late afternoon across the Panhandle and West Texas. Those clouds are due to an upper level disturbance moving eastward. By this evening those clouds will move into locations east of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Hill Country.

Light rain chances possible tonight and the first half of Saturday

A few sprinkles or very light showers will be possible tonight and on Saturday east of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Hill Country. North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas stand the best chance of getting a few sprinkles tonight and on parts of Saturday. Understand that moisture levels are quite low and thus any rain that reaches the ground will be light. Any showers won’t sit on any place long so a washout is not expected. Limited moisture levels mean no thunderstorms are forecast and neither is any severe weather or flooding.

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Tonight into Saturday Morning

Low temperatures by Saturday morning be cold once again with 20s across the Texas Panhandle, South/Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, COncho Valley, and Far West Texas. Western sections of the Panhandle will likely fall off into the 10s. 30s are expected across Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. 40s will be common on Saturday morning across South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

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Warming up this weekend

As the upper level storm system pulls away we should see a transition to mostly clear skies by Saturday afternoon across Texas. High temperatures will be warmer across western parts of Texas into Central Texas and Southeast Texas. North Texas and Northeast Texas will remain nearly the same as today. They’ll join in on the warmer weather on Sunday as temperatures continue to increase across most of Texas with 60s and 70s. The Panhandle will be cooler as another surge of cooler air moves in. Low temperatures on Sunday morning will still be cool with 20s to low 40s across Texas.

Quiet weather with seasonal temperatures

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It is a very cold morning across parts of the state. The good news is temperatures will rebound quite nicely this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly clear through the day. Clouds will be on the increase tonight across the Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas as a storm system begins its approach. Moisture levels will be too low for anything more than a few sprinkles on Friday Night. Temperatures this afternoon will peak around their averages for early February. Nothing too cold and nothing exceptionally warm. There may be a slight wind chill – especially across the Texas Panhandle.

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Tonight will be a few degrees warmer compared to this morning across the western half of Texas. Meanwhile Northeast Texas and East Texas will actually be colder. Temperatures statewide will range from the lower 20s to right around 40 degrees. Cloud cover will be on the increase across the Panhandle, Northwest Texas, into West-Central Texas tonight.

Noticably Cooler Today & Very Cold Tonight

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Temperatures will be much cooler today and tonight across Texas as a secondary surge of cold air has arrived. High temperatures this afternoon will remain in the 30s across the Texas Panhandle. 40s can be expected across Northwest Texas, the South/Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, Davis Mountains, into the Concho Valley, Big Country, and North Texas. Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy across the Panhandle and parts of West Texas before clearing later tonight. We won’t see temperatures nearly as cool across Southeast Texas, South-Central Texas, or South Texas today with upper 50s to mid 60s. Compared to the past few days those temperatures will still be a good 15 to 25 degrees cooler. There will be an elevated fire danger across Southwest and South Texas this afternoon.

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We’ll see the bottom fall out tonight as very cold air settles into Texas. The Davis Mountains and the Texas Panhandle will fall into the low to middle 10s tonight. 20s are expected across the South/Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, COncho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and Central Texas. Temperatures will fall into the 30s across the remainder of the state – including Southeast Texas, South Texas, and the Coastal Plains. Clear skies and relatively light winds will provide ample support for radiational cooling. Don’t be surprised to see temperatures vary over a short distance by morning.

Dry weather will continue on Thursday and Friday across Texas. There may be a few light showers on Saturday from the Concho Valley into Central Texas. None of that looks significant at this time. Another round of cooler weather appears possible next week but we remain in a blocking pattern. Unfortunately it appears a prolonged period of dry weather could continue well into February across Texas. There are indications we may see a pattern change by the third week of February. Until then we can expect below-average precipitation with the occasional cold front.

Enhanced to Critical Fire Danger Risk Expands This Afternoon

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This afternoon will be the last relatively warm one for the next couple of days across the eastern half of Texas. High temperatures will peak in the mid 60s to mid 70s along and east of Highway 281 today. That includes North Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Central Texas, and South-Central Texas. As usual folks in Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will top out in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees. It’ll be a drastically different picture across the Panhandle where cold air advection will be in full force today. Y’all will struggle to make it out of the 30s this afternoon with a biting north wind. The South Plains, Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, and Northwest Texas will range from the mid 40s to upper 50s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see temperatures struggle to climb much by this afternoon as cold air advection continues. We do note that high winds are possible again today in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.

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The initial cold front this morning won’t result in cooler temperatures this afternoon for the eastern half of Texas. What it will do is bring in much drier air. Combined with gusty west winds and low humidity we’re looking at another day with critical fire danger. The highest risk for explosive wildfire growth will be across Southwest Texas and the Concho Valley. Very high to near-critical fire danger exists across the Permian Basin, South Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, North Texas, and the Big Country. Compared to the past few days the risk for enhanced fire danger has spread further east. Local fire departments should be prepared for an increased risk of grass fires today. Any fire that develops could spread rapidly and require considerable┬áresources to contain.

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Far West Texas, the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, into the Permian Basin, South/Rolling Plains, and the Texas Panhandle are going to be cold tonight into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will range from the upper 10s in Alpine and the northern Texas Panhandle into the mid and upper 20s across the Plains and Permian Basin. Freezing temperatures are anticipated across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, western North Texas, and parts of the Hill Country. The remainder of North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and the Hill Country will be in the mid┬áto upper 30s tonight. Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and South Texas will range from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Finally we’ll round out with the upper 40s in the Rio Grande Valley for low temperatures tonight in the Rio Grande Valley.

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The storm system that brought high winds and blowing dust to West Texas is now causing a multitude of new problems to our north and east. A raging blizzard is impacting Nebraska and Iowa today. Meanwhile a severe weather episode will unfold this afternoon and tonight across Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. A squall line will move east with widespread damaging winds. Any sustained discrete storms that fire up ahead of that line could become tornadic this afternoon across northern Mississippi, southern Tennessee, and northwest Alabama. Back here in Texas we won’t be dealing with anything like that this week. Our weather looks dry through at least Thursday Night.

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