Author: David Reimer

1 PM Severe Weather Update; Updated Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas to a category 2 risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening. The latest short-term high resolution weather models are indicating we may see convective intensity increase as afternoon heating continues to destabilize the atmosphere. The primary concern today will continue to be flash flooding, but a couple severe storms are also possible. The strongest storms may produce large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and even an isolated tornado. Its possible storms may congeal into a cluster or lien this evening and slowly move south. Otherwise Jenny’s forecast from an hour ago remains valid and can be read...

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Category 3 Severe Risk Expanded; Busy Day Expected

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Category 3 severe weather risk zone to include Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and the Concho Valley. These areas are located just east of a surface dryline, where the atmosphere is destabilizing. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms east of the dryline this morning have slowed but not eliminated destabilization. The cap is quite weak today, which means we may just see storms continue to develop into the afternoon and evening hours. An approaching upper level disturbance will result in increasing wind shear supportive of organized thunderstorms. Breaks in the clouds will allow the atmosphere to quickly destabilize this afternoon. Due to the rich tropical airmass in place, the atmosphere is already quite unstable and thus cloud cover won’t play too much of a detrimental role in today’s evolution. The strongest storms this afternoon and evening could produce giant hail larger than the size of a baseball, destructive straight-line winds up to 80 MPH, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes. The threat for significant, longer-track tornadoes is expected to be further north in Kansas today. It doesn’t matter though, because if the one tornado that occurs in Texas today hits your house, it will be the “big one” to you. This graphic emanates from one of the morning runs of a high-resolution weather model. It’s showing several severe thunderstorms underway in the risk zones by...

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Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening

Showers and thunderstorms are underway this morning from Northwest Texas south through the Hill Country into Central Texas. All this activity is moving northeast. The ongoing showers and widespread cloudiness will result in a messy convective setup for this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Concho Valley in a category 3 risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening. A category 2 severe weather risk extends from Northwest Texas south to Southwest Texas – extending east to Central Texas, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. The strongest storms later today and tonight could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, localized flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes. Storms may develop by the early to mid afternoon hours just east of the dryline in the western area of the risk zone. Some of these initial storms may be supercells. By the late afternoon hours storms may be congealing into a cluster or squall line. That line of storms will slowly march east with a threat of hail, damaging wind gusts, and very heavy rain capable of producing localized flooding. Numerous thunderstorms are expected by the early evening west of Interstate 35. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern today but flooding will become a threat...

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4PM Severe Weather Update for Texas Panhandle

A Tornado Watch was issued earlier for the eastern Texas Panhandle. Amarillo, Shamrock, and Canadian are all included in this watch through midnight. We’re now starting to see isolated storm development occur just east of the dryline in the eastern Panhandle. Thunderstorms may tend to organize quickly once they get going. I don’t think we’ll see more than a couple of storms for the next few hours. THose storms that do develop could become supercellular with a risk of very large to giant hail, damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase after 6 PM with any sustained supercell and could continue after dark – like the previous two nights. We’re also watching for isolated storm development further southeast off the Caprock and in Northwest Texas. An outflow boundary may spark off one or two storms near the Red River. If storms develop they could quickly become severe with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes. The threat for severe storms will be highest through the eastern Texas Panhandle from 5 PM through midnight. The threat for tornadoes could continue into the late evening. We’re chasing in the Oklahoma Panhandle today where we expect the highest threat for tornadoes – along with southwest Kansas. You can keep up with storms this evening using our free interactive weather radar at Live streaming...

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Tornadic Supercells Possible in Eastern Tx. Panhandle After 3 PM

Like yesterday I’ll give full disclosure that I wrote this post at 2 AM this morning. I won’t be up at 6 AM this morning since I’ve driven 2200 miles in the past 3 days of chasing. Another chase day setting up this afternoon across the northeastern Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and maybe southwest Kansas. Time will tell where we end up – but you’re not reading this post for my chase plans for the day. The reason I mention the early post time is because there is a complex of thunderstorms in Southwest Oklahoma again at the time of this writing. This complex of storms may move east/southeast and impact portions of the Red River Valley with a threat of localized damaging winds. Obviously we’ll know what happened with this complex somewhat by the time this post comes out around 6:30 AM. Like Monday the complex of storms could cause a few forecast adjustment for this afternoon related to the dryline and additional storm potential. Don’t be surprised if the severe weather outlook is adjusted later this morning – which we will share in an updated post after 1030AM. For West Texas today should actually be a nice break in thunderstorm potential. Unlike Sunday and Monday the cap is expected to be stronger with a lower chance for severe storms. I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm...

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