Author Archives: David Reimer

About David Reimer

David began chasing storms in the fall of 2008 just as mobile technology was emerging. After only chasing part-time in the 2013 & 2014 seasons he is looking forward to the 2015 spring storm season! His chase partner just so happens to be the love of his life, Paige Burress!

David Reimer

Tornado Watch for Big Country & North Texas until 10 PM

2015-04-24_14-18-06

A Tornado Watch has been issued for the Big Country and North Texas until 10 PM. This includes San Angelo, Abilene, Brownwood, Stephenville, Mineral Wells, Fort Worth, Dallas, Athens, Hillsboro, Waco, and Killeen. A busy severe weather day is setting up with the potential for all modes of severe weather. Line segments will have the potential to produce hail up to the size of golfballs and wind gusts over 70 MPH. Discrete supercells will have the potential to produce hail larger than baseballs, wind gusts up to 70 MPH, and tornadoes. If a supercell is able to latch onto the warm front or boundary there is the potential for a strong/significant tornado. Even with widespread cloud cover the atmosphere has destabilized with a very moist airmass in place. As upper level forcing arrives from the west we should see an increase in thunderstorm coverage this afternoon into this evening.

2015-04-24_14-18-06

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY…SCATTERED STORMS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY TO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY…A FEW DISCRETE STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

Tornado Watch Likely for Big Country and North Texas

2015-04-24_11-17-50

A tornado watch will likely be issued for portions of thw Big Country and North Texas soon. We’ll be out chasing so be sure to check out our interactive radar to keep on top of things.

2015-04-24_11-17-50

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO

CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z – 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN

BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS….ALONG AND S

OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX. WW WILL LIKELY BE

ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION…A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX —

PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS…AS WIDESPREAD

CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX

AND INTO AR. THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL

CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS

EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL

DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL

TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE

OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA…AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS

CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER

SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. AS THIS

LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY

DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT…EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY

ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING

TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS…A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY

SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN

SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE

IS EXPECTED…WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS

GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS…LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED…ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES

WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT

UNCERTAIN…WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED

CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2

HOURS.

Complicated Severe Weather Setup Today

2015-04-24_1-02-27

Today has the potential to be an active one in the weather department – but there are several complicating factors with the forecast. At the time of this writing widespread showers and thunderstorms were underway from North Texas south through Central, South, Deep South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. Elsewhere east of the dryline we have low overcast and some fog. Not only will the ongoing precipitation help keep the atmosphere comparatively stable this morning it will also hinder moisture transport northward and more inland. Some of the storms this morning may be severe with hail and gusty winds, especially in South Texas. So a big factor in today’s forecast will be how quickly we can get the clouds/rain out of the way. If clouds stay in place into the afternoon hours we’ll see the atmosphere get moderately unstable – but not to the extent it would if skies cleared out. Regardless we’re going to have strong wind shear in place this afternoon so the severe weather threat would only be slightly mitigated.

2015-04-24_1-02-27

Compared to the forecast I made last night the dryline looks like it’s going to stay further west. That means more of Texas will be included in a severe weather risk this afternoon and evening. At this time the Storm Prediction Center has placed an enhanced risk of severe weather across all of North and Northeast Texas for this afternoon. A slight/possible risk includes the Hill Country, South-Central, Southeast, and East Texas. The enhanced risk area is where coverage of severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively highest with less widespread severe weather in the slight/possible area. It looks like we may end up dealing with multiple rounds of stronger storms today. The latest high resolution weather models develop individual supercell thunderstorms between 1 and 3 PM very near I-35 in North Texas and quickly move them east. That may or may not happen based on cloud cover/rain this morning. A more likely scenario is that we see storms fire up just east of the dryline this afternoon. Those storms would move across I-35 around 5-7 PM with a severe weather risk. Storms would move east into Northeast/East Texas during the evening hours.

Large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts are the primary hazards today but there will be a tornado risk with discrete thunderstorms this afternoon. An elevated tornado risk may develop this afternoon and evening if we have discrete supercells interact with any boundaries in Northeast Texas. Likewise if we end up with too much rain/clouds this morning the overall threat for severe weather will lower somewhat – but no where near completely. This is a good day to stay up to date with the latest weather information coming from your National Weather Service office.

West of the dryline there will be strong west/southwest winds with the potential for areas of blowing dirt. Elevated fire danger will also be a concern.

I’ll be out chasing later today – I just don’t know exactly where yet. Depending on where the highest tornado potential sets up I may end up in Texas, Oklahoma, or Kansas. Talk about a spread of potential targets!

Enhanced Severe Weather Later Today

2015-04-24_1-02-27

The Storm Prediction Center has issued an updated severe weather outlook for later today. A few things of note that have changed since our update last evening. This system is going to be a few hours slower and further west. That means instead of thunderstorms moving through the D/FW Metro around 1-4 PM we may end up seeing them in the 4-7 PM timeframe. There are still some questions about that so be sure to keep an eye on the forecast today. The dryline is going to hold back further west this afternoon. That means storms will fire well west of Interstate 35 and mature as they move east. It still looks like we should see the most intense thunderstorms along and east of Interstate 35 in terms of highest tornado potential. As the past two days have shown mother nature tends to remind us we’re essentially giving our best educated guess what she’s going to do. There are always a few surprises in an event and those usually don’t show up until a few hours before we get going. For that reason I encourage you to check back for forecast updates later today and keep up with the latest. Be sure you have a way to receive severe weather warnings and be ready to act if a dangerous thunderstorm approaches your location.

2015-04-24_1-02-27

…THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKLATEX…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREAS…ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS…AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES…

…SUMMARY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES…MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS…AS WELL
AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.

Enhanced Severe Weather Risk on Friday

day2otlk_1730

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We’ve had two days of severe weather potential now and for the most part we’ve kept the storms outside our largest cities. That will change tomorrow as a strong upper level storm system combines with near record-high moisture levels and an unstable airmass. The atmosphere will be spinning like a top and with dewpoint values in the lower 70s it will also be quite unstable. The makings are in place for a severe thunderstorm outbreak but that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll be dealing with many tornadoes. By late morning to early afternoon tomorrow a dryline will be somewhere west of Interstate 35. The dryline stayed way far west of where we thought it would end up today so you’ll understand when I say there is some uncertainty on where it will be by lunchtime tomorrow afternoon. I do believe it will be several counties west of Interstate 35. Another factor will be when will storms fire up. Some indications are we’ll have storms firing up by 12 PM while others say maybe closer to 2 PM. How early thunderstorms develop will determine how far west the risk of severe thunderstorms extends. Likewise an earlier initiation means the atmosphere won’t be ‘as unstable’ compared to a few hours later. As you can see we have several questions that need answering. Hopefully we’ll get those answers with tonight’s weather model guidance.

day2otlk_1730

Regardless of the questions above there is an enhanced severe weather risk along and east of Interstate 35 with the ‘possible’ severe weather risk extending 50-75 miles west of Interstate 35 from the Red River south to the Mexico border. The enhanced severe weather risk includes Northeast and East Texas. Depending on trends tonight and where things set up we could see these risks extended further west or shoved east. The primary severe weather hazards will be large hail up to the size of baseballs and destructive wind gusts up to 75 MPH. There will be the threat for a few tornadoes especially with discrete thunderstorms or intense cells in a squall line.

These graphics depict what the afternoon run of the North American Model shows tomorrow afternoon. Keep in mind this is only model guidance and shouldn’t be taken as a literal forecast of what the radar will look like. If it is correct we’ll see storms fire up west of I-35 and west of D/FW early Friday afternoon. Storms would be intensifying and probably severe as they move east into the D/FW Metroplex around 3 PM. They could be quite intense as they move across East and Northeast Texas

Simulated Radar Forecast at 2 PM Friday

Simulated Radar Forecast at 2 PM Friday

Simulated Radar Forecast at 5 PM Friday

Simulated Radar Forecast at 5 PM Friday

Simulated Radar Forecast at 7 PM Friday

Simulated Radar Forecast at 7 PM Friday

Tomorrow has the potential to feature a widespread severe weather potential along and east of Interstate 35 across North, Northeast, and East Texas. Large hail up to the size of baseballs will be possible with discrete supercells along with a tornado risk. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH are possible with discrete storms as well. Destructive and an enhanced wind damage threat up to 80 MPH is possible with the squall line along with brief tornadoes. If we ended up dealing with a more discrete thunderstorm event tomorrow the threat for giant hail and tornadoes would increase. Likewise a more linear mode (squall line) will keep hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats with a brief tornado also possible. Time will tell.

Convective-Risks

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