Author Archives: David Reimer

About David Reimer

David began chasing storms in the fall of 2008 just as mobile technology was emerging. He co-founded Texas Storm Chasers in early 2009 and continues as the Owner today. Besides storm chasing David enjoys spending time with his long-time girlfriend.

David Reimer

Friday’s Texas Weather Roundup + Football Saturday Forecast

Five to nearly ten inches of rain in some locations fell across the Rio Grande Plains overnight. Significant flooding was reported in Eagle Pass and Uvalde where numerous roads are underwater. The focus of heavy rain was helped by the development of a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV). The MCV created lift and helped widespread rain flourish overnight. Shortly after 6:30 AM this MCV, an area of spin, was near Uvalde. Weakening of precipitation intensity will continue this morning as the rain moves east towards South-Central Texas. Light rain is possible in San Antonio over the next couple of hours.


Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast today across the Edwards Plateau, Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and South Texas. While I don’t expect the heavy rains we saw overnight an upper level low located well to our west still has enough of an influence to help develop activity today. Isolated showers are possible across the Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, North Texas, and Northeast Texas today as a weak frontal boundary moves south across the Red River.


High temperatures across Far West Texas, the Permian Basin, Big Country and COncho Valley will remain in the 70s to lower 80s today thanks to cloud cover and rain chances. Most of the state will experience partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions today. The clouds won’t be enough to keep the Interstate 35 and 45 corridor out of the upper 80s to lower 90s. The Panhandle, Northwest Texas, and Texoma will enjoy cooler temperatures today with upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to the frontal boundary moving near or south of the Red River.


For tonight we’ll see an end to most convection across Texas. Low rain chances will persist across Far West Texas, Southwest Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley overnight. Everyone else will remain dry for the Friday Night Lights.


The overnight temperature forecast clearly reflects the position of a weak frontal boundary. North of the front temperatures will fall back into the upper 40s to 50s across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Red River Valley, Texoma, and Northwest Texas. Those along Interstate 20 from Midland east through the D/FW Metroplex to Longview will notice more seasonal overnight temperatures around 60 degrees. Southeast Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley will be annoyingly warm overnight with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


For football fans planning on being out on Saturday I expect dry and mostly sunny conditions across Texas with 80s by the afternoon. It won’t be ridiculously hot but there will be a bit of warmth by the afternoon. At least it won’t be freezing cold and foggy out. That kind of weather arrives next month. :)

More Rain for Western Texas Today with Heat in the East


I’m not a meteorologist but as someone who writes about the weather on a daily basis I can say it has not been a particularly good week for me. This morning an upper level low is sitting over northern Mexico or near the Arizona/New Mexico border. A few days ago the Global Forecast System (GFS) had this low sitting over Far West Texas while the European weather model seemed to do better with the low’s position. Regardless with the low considerably farther west than what we hoped for the rain chances for the eastern two-thirds of Texas have evaporated. The low has begun to move slowly to the south and will actually retrograde west by the weekend. The ridge is returning to Texas with temperatures climbing back to well above-average values for October. Say goodbye to fall for at least a week because the 90s are back.


Most of Texas is missing out on the rain but Far West Texas, the Permian Basin, South Plains, and parts of Southwest Texas are getting rained on this morning. Those rain chances will continue throughout the day and into the overnight hours tonight. Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible around El Paso again but instablity values are lower than they were on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting an additional half inch to 2 inches of rain across the Permian Basin through Friday. Isolated totals up to 3 inches will be possible. Localized flooding can be expected where the heaviest rains fall today or where we saw heavy rain last night.



The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) shows widespread shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the Permian Basin into western sections of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Scattered activity will be possible across the South Plains, Deep South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley as well. Look on the positive side – at least temperatures will be kept down by the clouds in those areas. The rest of Texas won’t be so lucky.


With more rain expected today temperatures will remain in the 70s across West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Far West Texas. Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Central Texas, and South-Central Texas into the Rio Grande Valley will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. The scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon in the Rio Grande Valley could help cool things off locally for those lucky enough to get rained on.


The ridge will hold tough over the next five to ten days. That means no major cold fronts and no return to fall weather expected through the middle of October. We’ve received questions (and complaints) regarding El Nino’s effects on our weather. Sometimes it does help turn fall cooler – but the impacts and overall effects are felt most during the winter months. Assuming weather models are on to something we look to be in for a big pattern shift towards cooler/wet weather by the end of October. Until then warm temperatures look to stick around for the most part with a few storm systems possible. Yeah… I’m not real happy either. This is yet another reminder that Mother Nature will do whatever it wants regardless of how annoying it may be.


Severe Weather Threat in Far West Texas Today; Flood Risk Increases Tonight



We’ve seen a lull in precipitation across Far West Texas this morning. The atmosphere is recharging with breaks in the clouds around El Paso and across Far West Texas. Compared to Tuesday I do expect a bit more of a severe weather threat today. An upper level low sitting across southeast Arizona has placed Far West Texas in a favorable quadrant with 40 to 45 MPH winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Combined with the increasing instablity values the stage is set for a few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.


A category 2 severe weather risk is in place across Far West Texas. This zone includes El Paso, Dell City, Van Horn, and Pecos. Wind fields will support organized thunderstorms including supercells. Weak low-level winds will keep the tornado threat very low. The strongest storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model run with simulated radar today. Times are in Eastern in the top-right part of the graphic.

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model run with simulated radar today. Times are in Eastern in the top-right part of the graphic.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh run from 9 AM CT shows an increase in thunderstorm activity across Far West Texas and the Permian Basin this afternoon. By early evening activity across eastern New Mexico should begin spreading into the Texas Panhandle. Activity may actually increase further across Far West Texas tonight with a threat of heavy rain and flooding.

Forecast rain totals through Thursday Night from the Weather Prediction Center

Forecast rain totals through Thursday Night from the Weather Prediction Center

The Weather Prediction Center continues to forecast 1 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday Night across the Permian Basin and Far West Texas. Localized rain totals up to 4 inches will be possible. Flash Flood watches have been issued for those areas for the threat of flooding. With the upper level low sitting across Arizona the forecast now keeps nearly all rain west of Interstate 35 (except in South Texas).

Stormy Weather Continues in Western Texas; 90s Return Elsewhere

Showers with a couple of isolated embedded thunderstorms are moving across the Texas Panhandle and Permian Basin this morning. The showers over the Panhandle are moving almost due north while activity over the Permian Basin is moving northeast. I don’t expect much, if any, additional eastward progress this morning since the rain is already pretty far east of the upper level low pressure.

Speaking of the upper low let’s take a look at the pesky system. This low has been a pain in the behind to forecast because rain chances are closely connected to where the low sets up shop. Somewhat unusual is the low pressure system is actually going to start moving south and eventually southwest/west by the end of the week. Initial forecasts placed the low further east closer to Texas resulting in decent rain chances along and west of Interstate 35. It now appears the low isn’t going to make it as far east and thus the best rain chances will remained confined to the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, Eduard Plateau, and Far West Texas over the next few days.


The placement of the upper level low and associated mid/upper level winds place Far West Texas in a favorable quadrant for organized thunderstorms. Winds at 500 millibars (about 18,500 feet above sea level) are cranking out of the southwest around 45 to 50 MPH. Winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are weak around 10 to 20 MPH but are out of the east gradually veering to the south and southwest with height. That veering with height and noticeable speed shear increase with height means there is certainly enough wind shear in place to support organized thunderstorms. A limiting factor for a more significant severe weather threat is the weak low-level winds and widespread clouds helping to keep the atmosphere from becoming too unstable. Regardless enough instability should develop in conjunction with the mid-level jetstream to support a severe weather threat this afternoon and this evening. The Storm Prediction Center highlights the threat of strong to severe storms with a Category 2 risk across Far West Texas into parts of the Permian Basin. Large hail up to the size of half-dollars (1.25″ in diameter) will be the primary concern with the stronger storms today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Far West Texas and the Permian Basin through Thursday evening where 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible with locally higher amounts.


Moving on to the high resolution North American Model (NAM) model run from this morning. It shows scattered thunderstorms underway across Far West Texas and the Permian Basin this afternoon. Weaker activity is noted across the Texas Panhandle south through West Texas and the eastern Permian Basin around Odessa and Midland. I think this is a pretty good representation of what we should see today although don’t expect the radar to turn out exactly like the model depicts.


Stronger thunderstorms along with heavy rain will continue into the late evening hours across Far West Texas into parts of the Permain Basin and West Texas. This is the timeframe where we may have some localized flooding issues as the NAM does indicate fairly decent rain totals. Some of the storms over Far West Texas may continue to produce hail overnight.


High temperatures today will be in the 70s across the Panhandle, West Texas, into Far West Texas thanks to the rain chances and cloud cover. Once you get into the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Northwest Texas temperatures are noticeably warmer with 80s to lower 90s expected this afternoon. The rest of Texas, including all the Interstate 35/45 cities, are expected to approach or get into the lower 90s today. The fall preview has ended (for now) and we’re back to summertime weather. Trends are not looking good for the next week with temperatures possibly even warming up into the mid/upper 90s. Hopefully we don’t get that warm but alas don’t expect to wear any of your fall clothing for the next few days.


Your Tuesday Night and Wednesday Forecast


Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight across Far West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Some of this activity will likely spread into the western parts of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin as well. Some strong storms with hail may also occur with a few storms capable of producing quarter size hail. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated overnight. Overnight temperatures will be noticeably warmer across the southern half of the state as moisture and humidity begins to stream back north ahead of an upper level low located in New Mexico. The Permian Basin, West Texas, Texas Panhandle, Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, North Texas, and Northeast Texas will enjoy another night with temperatures falling back into the 50s to lower 60s.


On Wednesday we’ll see scattered thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, into Far West Texas. Locally heavy rain will be possible and the National Weather Service office in Midland has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of the Permian Basin into Far West Texas through Thursday. Widespread 1 to 2 inch rain accumulations are expected over the next two days in the watch area. Localized rain accumulations up to 4 inches may occur which is why the flash flood watch is in effect.

Chance of getting rain on Wednesday

Chance of getting rain on Wednesday

Flash Flood Watch for the Permian Basin

Flash Flood Watch for the Permian Basin

Outside of those areas Wednesday will feature a return to more summer-like conditions as temperatures warm back up to annoyingly hot values. High temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, North Texas, Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas and South Texas. Cloud cover and the chance for storms will keep folks out west in the 70s on Wednesday.


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