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Great Weather Forecast This Weekend; Storm Chances Return Tuesday & Wednesday

Uneventful weather is forecast through the weekend in Texas. Changes begin quickly on Monday as a strong upper level storm system takes shape to our west. Gusty south/southeast winds on Monday will pump moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The relatively dry humidity will be a thing of the past. The storm system will roll east on Tuesday and Wednesday with the possibility of organized thunderstorms in some regions. We’ll get to all of that in a bit, but first lets talk about the great weather we’re expecting this weekend.

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Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon. We may see increased cloudiness in the Rio Grande Valley and in the Borderland in Far West Texas. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s north of Interstate 10. Middle 80s to lower 90s can be expected in South Texas and especially in the Rio Grande Valley. Rain chances are quite low today, but a stray shower can’t be ruled out around El Paso.

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Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the middle 50s in the Texas Panhandle, Northeast Texas, and the Hill Country up into the middle 60s along the coast, in South Texas, and in our larger metropolitan heat islands. The Rio Grande Valley will make it down to around 70 degrees. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear.

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Afternoon high temperatures will increase on Saturday and Sunday. Skies will remain partly cloudy across the state with little in the way of rain chances. Compared to today temperatures by Sunday will be a couple degrees higher. 70s and 80s are expected on Saturday. Sunday will feature high temperatures ranging from the middle 80s to lower 90s. The good news is dewpoint values will remain comfortable – so we won’t be dealing with the increased humidity until Monday.

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Even though afternoon temperatures will be increasing this weekend our low temperatures each night will remain comfortable in the 50s and 60s. This will lead to comfortable fall evenings and great weather for outdoor events.

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As stated in the first paragraph changes begin to arrive on Monday with increasing dewpoint values and stronger south winds. Isolated storms will be possible in the Texas Panhandle, but not especially likely at this point. That changes by Tuesday afternoon and evening as an impressive dryline takes shape near Interstate 27 from the Oklahoma Panhandle south through the Texas Panhandle into West Texas. Dewpoint values west of the dryline will plummet into the teens with an increase in grass fire danger. Moisture east of the dryline will be supportive of thunderstorms – along with wind shear values. One question is how much sun will get through clouds on Tuesday, but all weather models agree at least modest amounts of instability will be present. Organized thunderstorms may develop by late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the eastern Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Northwest Texas in a severe weather risk zone. Compared to the outlook yesterday the outlook is further north. It remains too soon to determine specific severe weather hazards. Those details will become more clear as we get closer in time. October and November do fall inside our fall severe weather season. 2015 proved we can experience severe weather any time of year – so keep an eye on the forecast.

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David Reimer

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