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Unsettled Weather with Rain Chances All Week

An unsettled week of weather is ahead as our upper level weather pattern shifts. It will certainly not rain everywhere or all the time this week. The best chance of rain beginning late tonight through Tuesday Night will be in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, into the Permian Basin. Rain chances expand and shift to include much of Texas beginning Wednesday through this upcoming weekend. Unsettled weather could easily continue into next week too. It certainly appears our summer weather pattern is done for at least the next ten days.

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For this afternoon we’ll have isolated shower chances across Southeast Texas – typical for the summer months. We’ll see a few showers pop up, give a few lucky folks a brief downpour, and we should be done with that activity by 7 to 8 PM. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon in the southern Permian Basin, eastern Borderland, south into Alpine and Marfa. Those chances will continue into the evening hours.

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A cool front will slowly make its way south into the northern Texas Panhandle tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will be possible along and behind the cool front. This front is going to be with us much of this week and will be a focal point for rain chances. Severe weather and widespread heavy rain is not anticipated tonight.

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Scatterded to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains. Isolated to widely scattered convection is possible across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, into the Permian Basin. The typical popup afternoon showers are also expected in East Texas and Southeast Texas. Severe weather is not expected, but there is the possibility of heavy rain on Tuesday in proximity of the cool front in the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains.

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Some of our more high resolution weather models are indicating a small area of very high rainfall rates tomorrow. If those do verify we may have a risk of flash flooding develop in those regions. We’ll have to keep an eye on the evolution of tomorrow’s setup in case the risk of flash flooding increases in the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains.

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By Wednesday the cool front will start sagging further south into more of Texas. With plentiful moisture in place we’ll see rain chances start to increase across much of the state. That doesn’t mean we’ll have rain everywhere on Wednesday but we’ll certainly see plenty of clouds and increasing rain chances. The same goes for Wednesday Night, Thursday, and Thursday Night.

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An upper level storm system will arrive on Friday and stay in our region through the weekend. Combined with the cool front, still meandering around Texas, we’ll see rain chances increase again with a fairly wet weekend a possibility across parts of Texas. Since we’re five days out I won’t get too specific yet since the forecast data will undoubtedly change as we get closer in time. We’ll have to keep an eye out for a few stronger storms on Friday near the Red River and potentially localized heavy rains in Texas too.

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David Reimer

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