Discussion – 

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Discussion – 

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Scattered storms increasing in coverage through mid-afternoon

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Isolated showers are already underway across the Texas Panhandle south into West Texas. This activity is moving in a rather atypical fashion – southeast to northwest. You can thank a weak area of low pressure off the Southeast Texas coast for the weird storm direction. Speaking of that low – it is causing rain along the Southeast Texas coast. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is suggesting some heavier activity may move inland into Southeast Texas this afternoon. Any heavier activity that develops or moves onshore will move to the northwest and could produce locally heavy rains. Meanwhile, we’ll see an uptick in activity in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, and the Borderland this afternoon and this evening. The HRRR shows plenty of activity later this afternoon which is a reasonable expectation given we already have development underway. Some of this afternoon’s and evening’s activity may produce locally heavy rain. Localized flash flooding could occur where we see a couple inches of rain or where heavy rain falls in areas that have already seen their fair share of it over the past couple of days.

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue/develop today across much of Texas. It would be easier to say where the chance of rain is lower, more isolated. Those areas with isolated (lower) rain chances will be along and north of Interstate 20/30 in North Texas, Northeast Texas, and separately the Rio Grande Valley. Rain chances will diminish in the eastern two-thirds of Texas tonight, but will continue in earnest across the Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, and Borderland. Once again localized heavy rain and flash flooding will be a threat.

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David Reimer

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