A fairly weak upper level storm system will bring a good chance of rain to southern sections of Texas this weekend. This morning’s upper air analysis had this upper level system over northern Mexico. Southerly/southeasterly flow will help pump increasing moisture values inland today. Isolated light showers will be possible across the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, but not much in the way of accumulating precipitation is expected.

Rain chances will increase on Saturday as widespread rain develops across the Rio Grande Valley, South Texas, Southwest Texas, Central Texas, extending east into the Coastal Plains, Brazos Valley, and western sections of Southeast Texas. A few storms are possible, mainly across Deep South Texas. Most of the rain will be on the moderate side tomorrow, but localized spots of heavier rainfall are probable the closer you are to the coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time, but we will keep an eye on far South Texas in case instablity values end up being higher than indicated.

A fairly decent precipitation shield is likely by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night from Central and East Texas south to the coast, so a fairly large area of rain. Scattered showers are possible as far north as the Red River in North Texas and Northeast Texas. Most rain will be light to moderate, but locally heavier rainfall amounts will be possible as you get closer to the coast. The chance of showers will decrease during the day Sunday, with only isolated activity expected by Sunday Night in Southeast Texas. A stronger storm system with a potential cold front could bring more chances of rain on Monday and Tuesday, but weather model agreement on the setup remains low.

Rainfall amounts of one and a half to three inches will be possible in the Rio Grande Valley, Deep South Texas, the Middle Coast, the Coastal Plains, and the immediate coastline into Southeast Texas. One half inch to one inch of rain may occur further north into South-Central Texas, Central Texas, and into the Brazos Valley. Outside of those regions rainfall amounts should remain below one-quarter inch with our weekend system. Locally heavier amounts are possible and these totals are just rough-estimates based on regions. Minor flooding could develop where we see heavier rains fall this weekend, but widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time.