The National Drought Mitigation Center released their weekly update yesterday. A relatively dry pattern over the last two weeks has resulted in a resurgence of abnormally dry conditions across various parts of Texas. While nearly 25 percent of Texas has entered abnormally dry conditions. However, only 4 percent of the state is in a defined drought. Our worst drought conditions are apparent in the Rio Grande Valley, South Texas, and in portions of Northeast Texas. 1 percent of our vast real estate in Texas is within a severe drought designation. For reference, that number was nearly one-hundred percent earlier this decade. These weekly drought monitor updates are released every Thursday morning.

Good news is in the forecast for the southern sections of our state. An upper level storm system located in northern Mexico will arrive this weekend. Southerly flow ahead of this storm system will bring a high chance of rain to the Rio Grande Valley, South Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas on Saturday and Sunday. Another system may bring a cold front and rain chances early next week.

Upcoming Week:

Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.50″ to 2″ are expected in those regions. Locally higher rainfall totals up to 4 inches could occur near the immediate coast and a bit further inland along the Middle Coast, Deep South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Hopefully we’ll should see improvement in drought conditions across South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in next week’s outlook. Unfortunately, the northern half of Texas looks to remain fairly dry over the next ten days. While light precipitation chances could occur the overall pattern does not support a good rain-maker. Abnormally dry conditions will likely expand over the next week outside of the rain chances. Our continued wildfire threat will deteriorate in the northwestern half of Texas.