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Discussion – 

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Dangerous Wildfire Outbreak Possible Today and Record High Temperatures

Record high temperatures are expected across much of Texas this afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s into the lower 100s. Yes, portions of South Texas will make it up into the triple digits today. Laredo is forecast to climb to 102° and McAllen up to 100°. No, we don’t usually see triple digit heat in February. Also of note, if D/FW makes it up to 90° this afternoon it’ll be the third earliest on record. So, it’ll be hot today. It will be hot for February and it will be pretty hot for a May afternoon as well. Yet the heat isn’t our main concern.

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The overall weather pattern is setting up to support a classic Southern Plains wildfire outbreak this afternoon. The combination of a jet-streak aloft, very low humidity values as the surface, and above-average temperatures will all come together to support a high-end fire weather potential. This risk is highest where an extremely critical fire weather risk has been issued. This extremely critical zone includes all of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, western Oklahoma, West Texas, into northern sections of the Permian Basin. These extremely critical risks are relatively rare and are not issued very often. I realize that folks don’t tend to take fire weather danger as seriously as severe weather or flooding, but this is a serious risk. We’ve seen devastating wildfires develop in similiar weather patterns – the kind of wildfires that can kill. Strong westerly/southwesterly winds will generally have the fires moving rapidly off to the east. Know your escape routes and have a plan in case you need to evacuate your area. A critical fire weather risk includes Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, the Permian Basin, the Trans-Pecos basin, and the Borderland. Dangerous fires are possible in the critical zone as well. Elevated/very high fire danger will extend as far east as Texoma, Northeast Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, and the Hill Country. Winds will be gusty out of the south in those regions this afternoon, which combined with dormant winter grasses, will allow any fires that develop to spread quickly.

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David Reimer

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