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Dry & Very Warm Week; High-Impact Wind/Fire Event Thursday in the West

Rain totals for the next seven days

Rain totals for the next seven days

A relative lull in precipitation chances will keep a majority of Texas dry over the next seven days. While we’ll have storm systems moving overhead and a fairly active jetstream in place we just won’t have the moisture available to produce precipitation. You can see that visually in the forecast precipitation totals for the next seven days. Our next chance for light rain in portions of Northeast Texas and East Texas may arrive in about a week, but that doesn’t look overly promising at this point.

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While rain isn’t expected over the next week we are certainly confident of continuing above-average temperatures. Data from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth shows portions of North Texas are on pace to have their warmest February in recorded meteorological history. I’m sure that is true for other parts of the state as well. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the warmest days for most of the state as highs climb back up into the middle to upper 80s and even lower 90s. Some cities will set new record highs this week, but that phrase has been used a lot this winter. A cool front will start progressing south on Thursday with temperatures falling back into the 50s and 60s in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. By Friday that front will help cool temperatures off into the 50s, 60s, to right around 70 degrees along and north of Interstate 10. A warming trend commences during the weekend. We’ll all be back in the 60s and 70s by Sunday.

While precipitation isn’t in the forecast, we could still be dealing with a high-impact weather event come Thursday in western parts of Texas. An upper-level jet streak will be moving into western parts of Texas on Thursday. Winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be well over 100 MPH. Strong surface heating and plenty of sunshine will allow for some of those strong winds to mix down to the surface. Widespread sustained winds of 30 to 40 MPH are expected during the day Thursday in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, into parts of the Permian Basin and the Borderland. Winds could gust as high as 60 MPH in western sections of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. Widespread blowing dust in New Mexico is probable and we’ll probably see blowing dust in some of the aforementioned Texas regions as well. Relative humidity values will be very low – in the single digits to teens. Combined with warm temperatures, very strong winds, and dormant winter fuels, we could certainly be looking at a significant fire weather event. Fire weather watches (precursors to red flag warnings) are already in effect for the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and the Borderland. The fire weather danger on Thursday will be critical to extremely critical – a day where folks in wildfire prone areas should stay aware of.

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David Reimer

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