Discussion – 

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Discussion – 

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Light Winter Mischief Possible Thursday Night and Friday

An arctic airmass will continue to advect south for the next couple of days. For today we’ll see high temperatures peak in the 60s across the Borderland, Southwest Texas, into Deep South Texas. Northerly winds, cloudy skies, and associated cold air advection from the north will keep high temperatures in the 30s in the eastern Panhandle to the Red River. 40s can be expected in West Texas, the Big Country, into Central Texas and Northeast Texas. A reinforcing shot of colder air will start arriving tonight and will help drop high temperatures into the very cold category into the weekend. We note high temperatures on Friday are not expected to get out of the teens in the Texas Panhandle – and that is dependent on how much snow cover is present. Very cold temperatures are expected Saturday morning where snow-cover is present. We start to moderate and warm back up on Sunday into early next week.

Now lets get to what you all are probably wanting to know. Will it snow at my house on Friday? First off, here are the chances for precipitation for Thursday through Friday Night. A series of upper level disturbances will transect the region. These upper level systems are pesky to track and a small change in their eventual track on result in significant forecast changes. Moisture levels will be limited – and the amount of moisture available will also greatly impact any potential winter weather accumulation forecast. The precipitation type for the southern half of Texas – where nay precipitation may fall – will be rain. The northern half of Texas will generally be cold enough for snow, or a sleet/snow mix. This is not expected to be a widespread winter weather event, outside of the Texas Panhandle. With that said – let’s dive into the data.

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This graphic is a combination of all local National Weather Service forecasts. These snow numbers should not be taken literally or as a certainty. If you’re reading this blog you likely know that winter weather forecasts in Texas generally change even within 6 hours of the event. The aforementioned uncertainties in several parameters mean this forecast could change dramatically between now and tomorrow night. Confidence in increasing that snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will fall in parts of the Texas Panhandle. The exact locations of highest snowfall accumulation in the Panhandle can’t be pinned down yet. With temperatures in the 10s any snow that falls will accumulate on roadways with travel impacts.

Lower chances for light snow will extend east into Northwest Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. At this time snowfall accumulations should remain light, a dusting to perhaps half an inch in a spot or two. This aspect of the forecast is low confidence. You can expect the forecast to change as new data arrives and we get closer in time. With temperatures expected to be well below freezing in Northwest Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas, even light winter accumulations could cause some travel problems. This should not be a major winter weather event.

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David Reimer

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