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Storm Chances Return Overnight and Monday

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The chance for storms returns to the forecast tonight and early tomorrow morning across north Texas as another cool front arrives. The front itself will not bring much in the way of cooler weather for us, but as it approaches northern Texas late this evening, we will likely see a squall line of storms quickly develop along its leading edge.  Some of the storms within the squall line could become strong to severe with damaging winds being the main threat.  Pockets of large hail may also be possible although the overall threat for widespread large hail looks unlikely.  Timing based on current forecast model trends shows the line developing just after midnight across western north Texas, arriving in the DFW metroplex between 3am and 6am, then pushing east of the DFW metroplex after 7am.  Aside from the damaging wind threat along the leading edge of the squall line, brief periods of heavy rainfall may lead to a few localized flooding issues across the DFW metroplex tomorrow morning which could impact your Monday morning rush hour depending on timing.

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For today, forecast highs will be slightly above normal with breezy south winds.  Parts of far west Texas and the Texas panhandle caprock regions will see sustained winds up to 35mph with gusts exceeding 40mph likely this afternoon.  Blowing dust will also be a concern this afternoon across the western Permian Basin and Trans Pecos regions.  Wind Advisories are in place across much of the area through the afternoon hours.  These winds will die out later this evening as the cold front arrives.  Overnight lows behind the front will drop down into the 30s and 40s across the panhandle and western Texas.  Ahead of the front, lows will remain mild and mostly in the 60s.

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For Monday…we have an Enhanced threat for severe storms across portions of far southeast Texas as the squall line continues to push east/southeast across the state late tomorrow morning through early afternoon.  While the greatest potential for severe weather will be across central Louisiana up into the Mississippi delta region tomorrow, there is a small window of opportunity for a few isolated severe cells to develop out ahead of the squall line across portions of southeast Texas.  Any isolated/discrete cell that manages to develop and become severe will carry the threat of tornado development.  This will not be a widespread threat, but residents of southeast Texas will need to keep an eye on the weather tomorrow morning through the early afternoon hours.  Timing for development of severe weather for southeast Texas tomorrow will be between 7am and 2pm before the main squall line exits the region.

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As the front moves through tomorrow, temperatures will become cooler and more seasonal behind it.  Gulf moisture will also be shunted south resulting in some pleasant fall conditions for the work week ahead for most of the state.  Widespread rain chances return late in the week into next weekend, but it’s still too early to discuss that with many details.  We’ll have updates out later this week regarding those rain chances, so be sure to check back!

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Jenny Brown

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