Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will the the theme for today across much of west and central Texas as an organized north/south line of storms marches eastward.  We’re not seeing much in the way of severe weather with this line, but we are seeing the potential for localized rainfall rates around 2+ inches per hour which could lead to localized flooding and runoff issues through the afternoon across the permian basin and edwards plateau regions. Strong winds up to 50mph will be possible along the leading edge of the line, but for the most part, storms should stay below severe criteria today.  Short-range forecast models seem to have a decent handle on the outlook for the remainder of the morning and afternoon, but confidence in exactly what will happen later today and overnight is not very high.  Most of the short-range models do bring this line into north central and central Texas by mid-afternoon, but they are currently indicating a decrease in intensity and rainfall rates.  This would be good for a lessened threat of localized flooding issues as the line approaches the I-35 corridor across north and central Texas, but if that changes, we will continue to see the threat of flooding. 

Short-range model forecast animation through Midnight

The rainfall outlook looks overall promising for a good portion of the state mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor today and into the evening hours.  Overnight, additional development will be possible across north and central Texas and continue into the early morning hours. Some thunder will be possible, but once again, widespread severe is unlikely.  Go ahead and plan on a messy commute to work on Monday anywhere between Dallas/Ft. Worth down into the Houston/Galveston metro area. We’ll have an update out early tomorrow morning, so be sure to check back for the latest on early Monday conditions as that part of the forecast refines overnight.

Highs today…seasonal with impacts from cloud cover and rain expected today.