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Marginal Severe Storm Risk for North Texas This Evening

2016-10-26_11-07-21

There have been some changes to the forecast for this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms this morning across Oklahoma have pushed an outflow boundary south to Oklahoma City. Based on morning weather model guidance it seems probable this outflow boundary may continue to push into Southern Oklahoma this afternoon. Additional scattered thunderstorms could develop as this outflow boundary continues into Southern Oklahoma this afternoon. Storms that do develop could be strong to marginally severe. Short-term high resolution weather models have isolated to scattered storms crossing the Red River in the 5-7 PM timeframe. The strongest storms may produce hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 MPH. Some of these storms may attempt to make it into the northern D/FW Metroplex during the evening rush hour. Weakening of the storms is anticipated as they move south away from the Red River. The primary thunderstorm threat should be highest north of Interstate 20 from Fort Worth to Canton. By early evening the loss of daytime heating and a departing upper level storm system should cause the thunderstorm cluster to quickly weaken. At this time the forecast chance of storms is low south of Central Texas. However, we will need to watch trends in case that changes. This is a dynamic forecast and we’ll continue to refine the forecast through the afternoon.

2016-10-26_11-20-30

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David Reimer

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