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Cool Front with Rain Chances Today; Much Cooler & Drier Behind the Front by Tomorrow

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The leading edge of the cool front has pushed through all of the Permian Basin. It now extends into the Texas Hill Country northeast to near Hillsboro to Sulphur Springs to De Kalb. Winds north of the front are gusting out of the north at 20 to 35 MPH. You won’t notice an immediate cool down in temperatures/humidity behind the front. Those lag about 75 miles behind the front. However, as the front continues to push south today, dewpoints will drop into the 30s, 40s, and lower 50s. Temperatures themselves will also be slower to warm. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in progress across North Texas and Northeast Texas. For now the remainder of the front remains dry. That may change later today as we start to see the atmosphere destabilize.

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Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible in proximity of the cool front as it pushes south through much of Texas through the day. Severe weather is not expected and most locations that do get wet won’t receive more than half an inch of rain. Since activity will be steadily moving east/southeast we shouldn’t see much of a flooding threat develop. Rain chances will quickly diminish from north to south as drier air filters in behind the front. North winds will remain gusty up to 20-30 MPH through the afternoon. By tonight rain chances will be zero except in the Rio Grande Valley where scattered activity looks to continue into Friday.

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High temperatures tonight will not get out of the 60s and 70s north of the Hill Country to Central Texas into East Texas. North winds and drier air filtering in will make for a beautiful fall day. With the lowering humidity there will be an uptick in grass fire risk, but no official fire weather designations are in place. This point is less moot for locations that received rainfall overnight. Temperatures will make it up into the 80s and 90s across South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, into Deep South Texas. As the cool front moves south this afternoon we should see some locations set their high temperatures around lunchtime. By late afternoon temperatures should be falling back into the 70s with north winds and drier air.

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Tonight is looking cold in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas where temperatures are forecast to fall into the middle to upper 30s. Patchy frost will be possible so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to protect the more sensitive plants. Lows in the 40s will be common in the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Big Country, Northwest Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the typically cooler sections of North Texas. 50s are forecast as far south South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas.

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The cool front will have pushed through all of Texas, including Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, by early Friday. As a result we’ll finally see a day where the entire state gets to enjoy fall weather. High temperatures will top out in the lower to upper 70s with low humidity values and light north winds. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will make it up into the lower 80s – a good twenty degree drop compared to Wednesday’s high temperatures.

A dry airmass, clear skies, and light winds will provide ample opportunity for radiational cooling at night. Temperatures after sunset should cool off quickly this weekend with pleasant fall nights in store. South winds will start to pump moisture back into Texas on Sunday so overnight temperatures will start to climb. The warming trend will begin on Saturday across Texas with high temperatures climbing into the lower and middle 80s. By Sunday temperatures will warm into the lower to upper 80s. Dry air warms more efficiently – just as it cools off pretty quickly at night. While temperatures will be warming this weekend at least humidity values will remain in the comfortable territory. After today and tomorrow rain chances look to remain very low through at least the early part of next week.

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David Reimer

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