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Widespread Storms This Weekend across Texas; Much Cooler behind Strong Cold Front

Good morning! After a long, annoying summer we’re finally on the verge of experiencing our first decent fall cold front. That cold front, copious moisture in place ahead of it, and a slow-moving upper level storm system will cause our weather to change in a big way over the next couple of days. For today, however, we’re going to be dealing with the typical warmth that Texas is known for. The weather radar does indicate a few showers moving off the Gulf and into Southeast Texas and the Middle Texas Coast. This activity won’t amount to much this morning. At most a few spots may get enough rain to wet the ground and pavement for the morning rush.

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Isolated afternoon showers and storms will be possible in the Rio Grande Valley, Deep South Texas, and South-Central Texas. Slightly higher coverage will result in scattered afternoon activity across Southeast Texas, Middle Texas Coast, and Brazos Valley. It’ll be a warm and humid day across these regions. As temperatures warm into the upper 80s this afternoon convective temperatures will be reached and we’ll see our first popup storms develop. Each individual storm shouldn’t last more than an hour. As our first storms of the day collapse they’ll produce outflow which will help new storms go up in the area. This process will continue through the late afternoon. By 7-8 PM I believe we’ll have most activity quickly weakening. Most evening activities in these regions should be good to go, although some may have to deal with a small delay due to lightning. A very low chance of a popup storm may develop this afternoon in the eastern Big Country and North Texas.

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By late afternoon a marginal threat of strong storms may develop in the northwest Texas Panhandle. By far most thunderstorm activity today will be well to the north in Colorado, but I can’t completely rule out a thunderstorm initiating this afternoon in our area. Any storms that do develop will move to the north/northeast with a threat of gusty winds and perhaps some hail. I don’t anticipate more than a few storms through the early evening hours and most should be confined to near the Oklahoma Panhandle border. We’ll have to keep an eye out this evening in the event as few more storms develop due to increasing moisture. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

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A storm or two will remain possible tonight from Southeast Texas into North Texas. A vast majority of folks will be enjoying a pleasant early fall evening (even though it still will feel like August). Widely scattered storms will be possible tonight across the Texas Panhandle into northern sections of West Texas. A few of these storms may be strong with gusty winds and small hail.

Now let me take a moment to highlight a few forecast highlights as we head into the weekend and early next week. The much anticipated strong cold front will arrive in the Texas Panhandle on Saturday. That front will move south Saturday Night into West Texas, Northwest Texas, Big Country, and portions of North Texas. It’ll take its sweet time moving south on Sunday and Monday – perhaps at a snail’s pace. This slower movement is due to a compact upper level storm system that will be to our west. The upper level storm system will be struggling to make eastward progress thanks to a strong high pressure in the Northeastern United States. These factors create a complex forecast and add uncertainty to the cold front’s timing and timing/location of heaviest rain chances. A complex forecast is one that is likely to change – perhaps several times – as new data arrives. The storm system responsible for our upcoming active weather will move onshore in the western United States by Saturday afternoon. Once the National Upper Air Network gets a sampling of the system we should start to see increasing forecast confidence.

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Moisture levels will continue increasing on Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by the afternoon hours across the eastern Texas Panhandle, West-Central Texas, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, the Concho Valley, North Texas, South Texas, into Southeast Texas, and the Middle Texas Coast. Some of these storms – especially closer to Oklahoma – may pulse up and produce gusty winds and a few hail reports.

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Rain chances rapidly increase Saturday Night as our cold front becomes a key player. Numerous thunderstorms – some producing heavy rain – are possible across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, eastern Permian Basin, with slightly lower chances near interstate 35 from D/FW south to San Antonio. Chances near I-35 and further south/east will increase on Sunday as the cold front makes slow south progress.

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Sunday and Sunday Night could feature increasing heavy rain across Northwest Texas, North Texas, the Big Country, West Texas, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, Hill Country, Central Texas, into Southwest Texas. A risk of flooding may develop where heavier rains fall and several inches of rain accumulate. Please see the rain-total graphic below for more detailed information on potential heavy rain/flooding issues. Rain chances ramp up in the Rio Grande Valley, Deep SOuth Texas, Middle Texas Coast, Southeast Texas, all the way north to the Red River from Northwest Texas, through Texoma and Northeast Texas. Some locations may be dealing with flash flooding by Sunday Night due to heavy storms moving over the same areas (training).

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The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will shift to the eastern half of Texas on Monday as the cold front makes continued east/southeast progress. Some heavy rain will remain possible, although it looks like the highest risk of heavy rain and flash flooding will be from Sunday through Monday. As we get closer to Monday and get a better grasp on the forecast we’ll be able to provide more accurate and detailed information. Depending on the upper level storm system’s timing – and potentially another system moving in from the Southwest United States early next week – rain chances could continue past Monday. That aspect of the forecast is way too blurry at this point to even try and make a guess.

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This rain total graphic contains data issued by the Weather Prediction Center on a regional scale. Rain amounts will actually vary over small distances and those are not reflected in this graphic. Overnight weather model data has required an increase in rain totals across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, and eastern sections of the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basins. Those regions are where the risk of flooding may develop on Sunday and Sunday Night with widespread rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. We’re not calling for significant/major flooding at this time, but we’ll need to watch rainfall amounts closely. Outside of the Texas Panhandle and parts of the Borderland the next five days should feature a good coverage of rain across Texas. Widespread rain totals of half an inch up to two inches are forecast. Some locations will receive less and some will receive much more. I reiterate that the rainfall forecast graphic does not depict small-scale variations that occur. The rain total forecast is also likely to change as confidence in one particular forecast outcome increases.

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Now lets take a look at temperatures after the cold front. The current forecast for Tuesday is one many Texans will likely enjoy. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s across the western two-thirds of Texas. The warmest temperatures forecast will be across East Texas with middle 80s as highs. Continued rain chances will help keep the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas in the 70s and lower 80s. Even locations south of the cold front this weekend/early next week will be cooler thanks to the rain chances and clouds.

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Finally, I’ll leave you with this beautiful low temperature graphic for Tuesday morning. Lows will drop into the 40s across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, and the Borderland. 50s are anticipated in Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Texoma, and parts of Northeast Texas. The remainder of the state should drop off into the 60s for Tuesday morning. Overall, it’ll be a nice change compared to the summer temperatures.

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David Reimer

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