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Widespread Rain Chances Saturday through Monday with Strong Cold Front; Fall Arrives With It!

We have two more days of hot and humid weather before changes arrive in the form of a strong cold front. Well, I suppose it’ll actually be more like three days, but by Saturday the cold front’s impacts will start being felt. This morning we have a couple of thunderstorms moving inland on the Middle Texas Coast from the Gulf. These isolated storms are producing fairly heavy rain and may drop a quick inch of rain. Widespread rain is not expected today. We’ll keep an eye on a weak area of low pressure east of Corpus Christi in the Gulf of Mexico today. Tropical cyclone development isn’t expected with the low but it may help enhance popup storm coverage this afternoon.

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Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across Southeast Texas, the Middle Texas Coast, into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. A area of weak low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico may help spark off a few more storms this afternoon as well. A couple stronger storms with frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain may occur. Widespread rain is not anticipated. Rain chances quickly dwindle with inland extent.

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High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to upper 90s across Texas this afternoon. Unlike Monday and Tuesday the humidity values should be lower this afternoon as moisture mixes out a bit. Heat index values should remain in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon along and east of Interstate 35. It’ll be warm, but not as hot as earlier this week.

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As moisture begins to increase across the southeastern sections of Texas on Friday so do rain chances. Scattered showers and storms are anticipated during the afternoon hours in SOutheast Texas, the Brazos Valley, Central Texas, the Middle Texas Coast, into South-Central Texas, Deep South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. A couple stronger storms may produce frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and a quick inch or two of rain. Coverage of storms will decrease by early evening with the loss of day-time heating. I expect a majority of storms will be gone by 7-8 PM.

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The more significant changes to our weather start on Saturday. A strong cold front will be approaching our state from the north. Ahead of the front moisture levels will be quickly increasing. The atmosphere will contain quite a bit of moisture. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of Texas – the exception being the Borderland into Southwest Texas. The highest coverage of scattered storms will be across Southeast Texas north/northwest into Northwest Texas. Some storms in the eastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas could become strong with strong wind gusts.

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Our much anticipated cold front should push south into the Texas Panhandle during the evening Saturday. As it moves southeast/south we’ll see scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the eastern Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and western portions of North and Central Texas Saturday Night. If the front’s timing slows or accelerates the rain chances would likewise need to be revised as well.

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Sunday looks to be the wettest day of the forecast. Numerous showers and storms are forecast across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, into South-Central Texas. Chances of rain will be lower in the Rio Grande Valley, the Texas Panhandle, and almost zero in the Borderland. Rain chances will continue Sunday night. This is the timeframe where we may start to see more widespread, heavy rains develop. Confidence in one particular model is low, so we’ll refrain from highlighting specific regions for the heaviest rain potential at this time.

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As the cold front pushes south into South-Central and Southeast Texas on Monday rain chances will continue in earnest. The best chance for numerous showers/storms will be south of the front. However, moisture may linger north of the front and thus scattered showers could continue from the Permian Basin into Northwest Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. Both Sunday and Monday will greatly depend on the speed of the cold front and upper level energy in place. These two factors will likely be adjusted as we get closer in time, so the forecast will probably need revision.

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The upcoming cold front, copious amounts of moisture, and a slow moving upper level storm system mean a good chance of rains impacting Texas starting Saturday and continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches seem likely with locally heavier amounts. At this time the risk of widespread flooding is low through at least the morning hours Sunday. We’ll have to keep an eye on Sunday Night and Monday in the event another round of heavier rains develop in portions of the state. We won’t know specifics on that until at least Friday or Saturday.

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Rain won’t be the only good news with our upcoming cold front. Our first true blast of fall will arrive in earnest with gusty north winds behind the front. Temperatures on Monday won’t get out of the 60s in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. 70s are expected all the way south into the Concho Valley, Central Texas, and Northeast Texas.

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As the front continues to push south on Monday temperatures by Tuesday morning will be quite pleasant. 40s, 50s, and lower 60s are expected north of the front. These may end up being lowered a few more degrees in subsequent forecasts. Regardless, early next week is going to feel like fall.

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David Reimer

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