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10:00am Saturday Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather chances today will be confined primarily portions of west central Texas and southwest Texas this afternoon and evening.  A reasonably strong cap will be in place across the warm sector east of the dryline today with little chance for storm development outside of the Slight and Marginal Risk areas on the Outlook below.  For areas in or near the Slight Risk, the cap is expected to erode by mid-afternoon. With moderate and some pockets of strong instability in place, scattered strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon with the primary risks being large hail, damaging wind gusts and localized very heavy rainfall.  Upper level support for more organized severe storm development is meager, and the dryline is not expected to be very sharp this afternoon, which means storm development this afternoon will be reliant on subtle outflow boundaries across the area and pure surface heating and instability to kick things off.  As such, we’ll likely not see these clusters of storms move much which could lead to localized flash flooding issues wherever they happen to form.  As we head into the late evening/early nighttime hours, it’s possible we’ll see these clusters of storms merge and develop into a squall line that could move east across south central Texas after dark.  Confidence in that outcome is uncertain at this time, but it’s worth mentioning as the evolution of a squall line could mean a higher potential for heavy rain and damaging winds further east towards the I-35 corridor.  We’ll be keeping an eye on that later this evening.

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Here’s a look simulated radar loop from the HRRR short-range high resolution forecast model. As always, keep in mind this is what the computer thinks will happen, so don’t get hyper focused on exact location of storm development.

hrrr_2016052813_ref_tx

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Jenny Brown

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