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11:30am Rainfall and Severe Weather Outlook

We have a lot to catch up on after all of us were out chasing in Kansas and Oklahoma yesterday.  First off, our prayers go out to all who were affected by last night’s flooding across south central Texas.  Rainfall records in Brenham were completely shattered yesterday with 17.53 inches of rainfall recorded at the automated weather observation system there in the city.  In the Austin area, local emergency managers are asking people to stay out of the Bastrop area for the time being as overnight flooding has closed Hwy 71 in several locations early this morning.  Roadways across the south central Texas region are slowly being reopened as the flood waters subside, but if you don’t have a need to be traveling through this impacted areas today, just stay out.  Local residents are asked to shelter in place until the high water subsides.  For the latest on roadway conditions and closures across south central Texas, please visit www.drivetexas.org 

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For this afternoon across south central Texas, the dryline is expected to shift as far east as the Hwy 281 corridor by this afternoon.  Daytime heating combined with plenty of moisture and an active subtropical jet overhead may lead to additional rainfall this afternoon across the affected areas.  There is uncertainty is where training of storms will set up this afternoon.  This is nearly always impossible to predict until the storms form and their ultimate path is determined, but suffice it to say that any amount of additional rainfall will only exacerbate flooding conditions already in place.  Flood Warnings remain in effect until noon today and may be extended if rainfall picks up across the region in the next few hours.  Flash Flood Watches across the entire area will remain in effect until later this evening.

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The Severe Weather Outlook for today is Marginal with most of the activity having already occurred this morning.  However, in the wake of the early morning storms, we could see one last round of scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across north Texas.  Confidence in this is not great in regeneration of storms later today across northern Texas, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.  By far, the best chances of seeing strong storms and heavy rainfall will be across south central and southeast Texas through this evening.

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Jenny Brown

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