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7:25pm Severe Weather Update – Wednesday through Thursday

Once again this evening, we have activity along the dryline in the Texas panhandle.  Not a widespread coverage of storms…one southeast of Spearman and another cell development just west of Clarendon…but any storm that develops within the next couple of hours along the dryline will have the potential to become strong with very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.  The radar loop below spans 6:40pm through 7:12pm Central Time.

amarillo_radar

Tomorrow is expected to be a “down day” for much of the state with only a Marginal Risk of severe weather development across most of the area, and a Slight Risk across far southwest Texas along the Rio Grande. The cap is expected to be strong across much of north and central Texas which will squelch any storm that even thinks about developing.  A few of the models develop a cluster of storms up along the Red River near Wichita Falls tomorrow afternoon and moves them southeast into north central Texas, but the likelihood of them surviving the cap and bringing severe weather to north central Texas is pretty slim.

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TX_swody2

Thursday, Scattered rain is expected to move up from the south and southwest across central Texas during the day on Thursday which may somewhat limit the threat of severe weather across the central and eastern regions.  Further west along the dryline, instability will become moderate to high by Thursday afternoon which will likely lead to yet another round of strong to severe storms from western north Texas down into west central Texas by mid-afternoon.  It’s across these regions that the Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced (Level 3) risk of severe storms for Thursday afternoon and evening.  Details on how the early day precipitation further east will affect the late day storm chances out west is unclear and won’t be fully resolved until we see what actually transpires overnight tomorrow into Thursday, so we do expect to see some updates to this Outlook by Thursday morning.  If we are faced with the threat of scattered strong to severe storms on Thursday, all modes of severe weather will once again be possible including very large hail, tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds.  2016-05-24_16-05-34

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Jenny Brown

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