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Severe Weather Chances Along the Dryline Today and Sunday

A deep upper level trough across the desert southwest will creep ever so slowly towards Texas this weekend and into next week.  This will initiate repeated storm chances along the dryline this afternoon, tomorrow afternoon and every afternoon next week.  While that sounds a bit concerning, this will not be a widespread severe weather setup affecting the entire state.  Each day’s severe weather chances will be focused along the dryline where it sets up each afternoon, and how each day’s storms play out will have an impact on the development of storms the next day.

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For this afternoon, the dryline is expected to set up along the TX/NM border.  Capping will be strong during the day and afternoon hours which will likely lead to late afternoon/early evening storm development across the western panhandle and up into the west central Oklahoma panhandle.  Storms will likely struggle at first to fight the cap, but as the low level jet begins to pick up just before dark, isolated cells are expected to intensify and carry a threat of damaging downburst winds, large hail and a slim chance of a quick tornado spin-up.  Some of the short range models are hinting at the development of a small squall line which will advance from west to east across the panhandle overnight, but the confidence in that happening is not very high at this time.  At any rate, folks in the panhandle this evening will need to stay weather aware later this evening, especially if you have any outdoor plans.  Further south along the central coast, a marginal risk of severe weather is in place for today.  With high moisture and moderate instability in place, pop-up strong to severe storms are likely across the area this afternoon which will carry the threat of heavy rainfall, nuisance flooding, frequent lightning, hail and gusty winds.

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TX_swody1

6pm radar

For Sunday, the dryline is expected to set up just a bit further east than today which will shift the threat further into the central and eastern panhandle.  Lift from the upper level system is also forecast to be stronger than today, which will likely lead to more coverage of storms as the dryline becomes active by mid to late afternoon.  This will likely extend the threat for severe storms further south and east into west central and central Texas.  Wind shear is expected to be stronger Sunday afternoon which will promote isolated to scattered supercells to develop with a greater threat for large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.  As mentioned above, each day’s activity…remnant outflow boundaries, persistent precipitation into the following morning and residual cloud cover…could have an impact on the location and impacts of storm development the following day.  Such is the case with Sunday’s severe weather chances.  Confidence in leftover storms from Saturday night continuing into early Sunday is low, so the area of highest risk outlined on the map below may change somewhat by tomorrow and we may even see an elevation to Enhanced Risk if that is warranted.  Be sure to check back with us later today and tomorrow morning for updates to Sunday’s forecast.

TX_swody2

6pm radar Sunday

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Jenny Brown

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