Isolated Severe Storm Development after 3 PM in D/FW and Northeast TX

By David Reimer

May 9, 2016

There have not been many forecast adjustments since this morning’s blog post. The dryline is currently located in western North Texas and will slowly move east early this afternoon. By 3 PM it should be in the vicinity of Interstate 35/Interstate 35W in North Texas. For those unfamiliar with the area that places the dryline over the D/FW Metroplex. Since no major forecast updates are required with this update I’ll use a bullet system type post to get the information out more quickly.

Isolated thunderstorm development is possible after 3 PM to the east of the dryline. The dryline is expected to be located near I-35/I-35W by this time.
Thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and evening will not be high; perhaps only a couple of storms.
Those storms that do develop will quickly intensify and will likely become severe. The threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary issue initially.
The threat for a couple tornadoes will be highest in Northeast Texas late this afternoon and evening as storms move into a more favorable enviornment.
A stronger cap and weaker lift will result in thunderstorms becoming less likely with southward extent. The most likely regions to be impacted by a few supercells today will be eastern sections of North Texas and Northeast Texas.
The first storms may develop within the D/FW Metroplex after 3 PM. While they may strengthen quickly the highest severe weather risk should be east/northeast of D/FW.
If the dryline is slower in eastward progression the severe weather risk may shift west by 15-30 miles. While not normally a big deal that would mean a higher chance for some severe weather in D/FW this afternoon. Trust me – you’ll be able to see any storms that get going. Keep an eye to the sky.
Thunderstorms should be out of the D/FW Metroplex by 5-6 PM and into Northeast Texas. The 5 PM to 9 PM timeframe will be when we may have a few tornadoes in Northeast Texas. We may get away with the strongest storms staying on the north side of the Red River – but I’m certainly not going to call that now.