We’re monitoring several areas of rain ongoing this evening. Additional activity is expected to develop overnight as an upper level system slowly moves closer. Moisture content in the atmosphere is near record-high values for mid-April. The severe weather threat this evening is slowly diminishing although a few storms with hail can’t be ruled out overnight. The primary issue will be flash flooding. The high moisture content in the atmosphere will allow for very heavy rain production. At the same time a compounding problem will be very slow storm movement and training. Training occurs when thunderstorms continue to move over the same locations. We saw that happen many times in 2015 and the result was a quick 5 to 10 inches of rain in a couple hours. Sometimes you can get a few hour lead time on where those bands will set up and other times – like tonight – you just have to wait and see. Short-term weather models are not handling the placement of precipitation well and so we’re just going off what we see develop. Flash flooding is becoming more likely on the western sections of the Houston metro where a stationary storm is dumping very heavy rain. Additional storms are starting to slowly develop in Central Texas and could cause more flooding tonight. Yet another training band of heavy rain extends from Graham northeast to Nocona and could cause flooding through midnight. As if that wasn’t enough a couple strong storms have been dumping small hail in Lubbock over the past hour. It won’t rain everywhere tonight but I do anticipate additional heavy rain and storms will develop. Some locations will have flooding problems tonight and more rain/storms will develop on Monday. The highest risk for very heavy rain and flash flooding will be in Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, southern North Texas, and Southeast Texas overnight. Those who live in a flood-susceptible area should stay alert tonight. Follow your local National Weather Service office and preferred local media. You can also track the rain and storms using our free mobile app and interactive radar.

Chance of rain or storms tonight

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Chance of rain or storms on Monday