Discussion – 

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Discussion – 

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Tornado Watch Likely for the Texas Panhandle Soon; Dangerous Evening Possible!

The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service offices will coordinate a tornado watch for the Texas Panhandle over the next hour. Conditions are coming together to support the possibility of a rather substantial severe weather threat in the Texas Panhandle this evening. Multiple supercells capable of producing baseball size hail will likely begin developing by 5 PM across the western Panhandle. As they move east into an enviornment with higher moisture the cloud bases will lower. Strong low-level wind shear will support the possibility of tornadoes this evening.

mcd0385

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

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AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES…SERN CO…FAR
ERN NM

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151938Z – 152145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…95 PERCENT

SUMMARY…THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR MODES IS
INCREASING…AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO
21Z.

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DISCUSSION…A DRYLINE IS SHARPENING FROM SERN CO SWD ALONG THE W
TX/ERN NM BORDER. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED DRYLINE SOLENOIDS TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
20-22Z TIME FRAME. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE
SURMOUNTED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.8 C/KM SAMPLED BY THE 18Z
AMA RAOB WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
YIELDING ROBUST CONVECTION. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO 40-50
KT ORIENTED WITH AN ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL ALONG WITH SVR WIND
GUSTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH — ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET — WILL
SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL…AS WELL — LASTING INTO THE EVENING
DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS CONVECTION SPREADS
EWD/NEWD.

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David Reimer

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