I’ve been saying most of the summer that it does not matter how many tropical systems we get this season because it only takes one storm. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Erika to be a hurricane in the Bahamas by late Saturday Night. There remains considerable uncertainty over the track and potential intensity of Erika. There are some weather models that weaken Erika and make it a relative non-issue. Other weather models make Erika a potent hurricane by the end of the weekend. The same weather models also diverge on the eventual track of Erika. At this time I do feel confident in saying this will not be a Texas threat. Most likely this system will not even get into the Gulf of Mexico. On the other side of the spectrum parts of Florida and folks in the Bahamas will need to watch this system carefully. The first hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate this system will arrive this afternoon to give us our first good look inside the storm. Forecasting tropical systems is nearly as difficult as forecasting winter weather in Texas – things change and can change fast. There is no need to go cancel vacations or anything like that yet. Even though this will not be a Texas threat we’ll be watching it closely and posting updates.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.6N 49.4W
ABOUT 840 MI…1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Montserrat
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba
* St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
are expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.