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The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 3 Moderate Risk for Sunday across Northeast Texas. While this risk translates into a Significant Risk of Severe Weather on our graphic this is as high of a severe weather risk they can issue for a Day 3 severe weather outlook and have only done it a handful of times in the past. What this means is that the forecasters have enough confidence to say a major severe weather outbreak is expected on Sunday across parts of Southeast Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and West/Southwest Arkansas.
A Significant Risk of Severe Weather is expected on Sunday across parts of Northeast Texas including Clarksville, Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Gilmer, Marshall, Atlanta, New Boston, and Texarkana. A significant risk of severe weather is very rare this far out from an event and marks a nearly one in two chance severe weather will occur within 25 miles of your location. This means there is the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak including the potential for very large hail, destructive winds, and the possibility of several tornadoes (some of which could be strong and long-lived).
An Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather is expected on Sunday across portions of East Texas including Paris, Greenville, Terrell, Corsicana, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Longview, Tyler, Athens, and Greenville. A enhanced risk of severe weather there is a nearly 1 in 3 chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location. Thunderstorms in this area will be strengthening as they move northeast after developing further west along the dryline. These storms will likely become severe rapidly with a threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes. This area also has the potential to see a severe weather outbreak.
A standard “possible” area of severe weather is expected to develop across portions of North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas including locations along and east of I-35 from Gainesville-Fort Worth-Temple line and then east of I-35 east of Austin. This risk then runs along and north of Interstate 10 from Flatonia-Sealy-Houston-Beaumont line. Bryan/College Station, Brenham, Huntsville, and Woodville are a few towns also included in the risk area. This area has the potential to see a few severe thunderstorms with a nearly 1 in 5 chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location. Confidence in more widespread severe thunderstorms is lower in this zone but a few severe storms are expected. The strongest storms could produce hail up to the size of tennis-balls, 65 MPH wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Depending on trends parts of this area could be included in an enhanced risk in the next outlook issuance on Saturday.
As previously discussed the main focus on Sunday will be the dryline with locations east of the dryline under the gun with the severe weather threat. The further north you go along the dryline into North Texas/Northeast Texas the higher the severe weather probabilities and overall storm chances. The new severe weather outlook posted here has the dryline sitting on top or just east of I-35/I-35E across North Texas with thunderstorms developing just east of D/FW and becoming supercellular as they move northeast into Northeast Texas. Both instability and wind shear values are impressive and would support a significant severe weather and tornado threat with any sustained supercell.
We’re three days out from Sunday so there is little point in getting too detailed right now since some changes are expected. However unlike the Saturday event that has been going downhill in terms of the possible severe weather threat Sunday is a different story all together as ingredients could come together to support a major severe weather outbreak across Northeast Texas and adjoining areas of Oklahoma and Arkansas. This does include the threat of tornadoes so this is a threat to be taken seriously. There is no reason to be scared or to panic at this point. Simply consider this a heads up that bad weather is expected on Sunday. If you have not already done so form a severe weather safety plan with your family and practice it in your home while the weather is nice today and Saturday. Those planning on being at outdoor events on Sunday in the Significant/Enhanced risk zones should be ready to move to a place of shelter if a storm approaches. The severe weather risk is lower across Central Texas into Southeast Texas as fewer storms are expected on Sunday. However, they could still be quite intense with large hail and damaging winds.
Don’t be scared, be prepared! We’ll be posting many updates on this event as we get closer to Sunday with the latest information. I can already say our team will be chasing on Sunday in East/Northeast Texas but we’ll have also have staff staying back so we can post timely updates on our blog as well. Nevertheless you should NOT use us for real-time warning information once the severe weather is underway in your area. While we do post warnings and information, the best way to get real-time life saving information in a Tornado Warning is by watching your preferred local news station on the internet or on television plus having a smart phone app like WeatherRadio from iMap to let you know the SECOND you come under a weather warning. We’ll be posting safety information and tips on what you can do to be ready as we continue into the weekend.
For those weather-geeks among us here is the full discussion for Sunday from the Storm Prediction Center. I’ve highlighted the section that most non-weather nerds will be able to quickly read without having their brains hurt from weather jargon.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VALID 271200Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES.
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES
TOWARDS NEB. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW…CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE…A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
…MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML
WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY SUN AFTERNOON. INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE
SURFACE-BASED OR WILL TRANSITION TO BECOMING SO AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS N/E.
THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE TOWARDS PEAK HEATING…WITH CONFIDENCE GREATEST IN THIS
OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY STORMS /CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX/. WITH ROBUST HEATING OCCURRING ACROSS TX…MLCAPE
SHOULD PUSH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS…CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING ACROSS NERN TX SUN
EVENING…TRAINING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER N INTO THE MO VALLEY…EARLY DAY
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE RISK. BUT WITH STRONG
INSOLATION…MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY
MERIDIONAL…SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WOULD
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION…WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.