Daily Archives: December 13, 2012

Update on Severe Weather Possibilities Friday

The SPC has placed a portion of the panhandle, northwest and north central <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>Texasstrong> under a 5% risk of <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>Severe Weatherstrong> <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong>.  While this is certainly less than their standard 15% risk which we normally see, it’s indicative that there exists a chance of some isolated strong to <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>severestrong> thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours across the panhandle and northern parts of the state.

Friday SPC Outlook

The risk of strong to <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>severestrong> <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> should not be much of a problem during the early part of the day when scattered light to moderate rain showers look to be the primary mode of convection.  The risk of stronger <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> increases later in the day just ahead of the Pacific front as it moves in from the west/northwest across the state.  At this time, the primary threats with the stronger <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>stormsstrong> will be wind, small hail and lightning.  The panhandle area will get to experience some extra special weather <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong> in the form of high winds.  David Drummond posted a great article about that earlier this evening.  Be sure to check it out here:  http://www.texasstormchasers.com/?p=12559

<strong>Timing for the development of a line of strong to severe storms may need to be adjusted tomorrow, but the following will serve as a good estimation at this timestrong>

<strong>Panhandle:  strong>Noon to 5pm

<strong>Northwest Texas:strong>  5pm – 9pm

<strong>North Central Texas:  strong>9 pm to midnight

Again, this is a low threat (just 5%), but we wanted to put this out there so you can be aware of the possibility.  As always, if you’re going to be out and about <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong> in these areas, keep a weather eye out and make sure you have a way to receive Warnings should any be posted for your specific area.

Rain Chances Tomorrow and Saturday

A fast moving storm system is expected to traverse across New Mexico then northeast across the panhandle on Friday.  Widespread areas of showers and possibly a few storms are expected.  Rainfall totals will not be great, but this will provide at least a little moisture for what vegetation remains.  Hopefully this will help to snuff some of the high fire danger for a few days.

Below are some graphics from the North American  (NAM) Model to help visualize what the math thinks things will look like at the following times.   As always, keep in mind this is just a projection, so don’t get too fixated on exactly where the green spots are.

After passage of the rain, a weak Pacific cool front will move through but this will do little more than provide a wind shift and slightly cooler and drier air.

am Friday Morning 

GFS 6am rain

 

Noon Friday 

GFS noon rain

 

pm Friday 

GFS 6pm rain

 

Midnight Friday into Saturday Morning 

Midnight Friday

am Saturday

GFS 6am Saturday

 

@TxStormChasers

/TxStormChasers

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