A series of upper level lows will move across from the southwest over the weekend beginning on Friday. Rain chances for the state are not epic, but there’s hope…and we’ll take it. Pictures are better than nerdy words sometimes, so I’ve arranged a series of forecast graphics below which outlines where and when the rain is expected to fall based on current forecastmodel trends. Both the Europeanmodel and the American models are not all that consistent with the timing, but they both have been consistent with the chances for rain. The biggest inhibiting factor continues to be a lack of moisture across the state. Available moisture in the atmosphere is one of the primary ingredients needed for rain and storm development. With dewpoints currently in the teens, 20’s and 30’s across the state, these systems just don’t have much to work with. If somehow this series of lows deepens (gets stronger), slows down, or can tap more into a band of sub-tropical moisture out in the Pacific and carry that up across Mexico and over Texas, we’ll have better chances. We will continue to watch the trends and keep y’all informed.
So, back to what the rain chances look like. We’ve got a few graphics from the Europeanmodel below to show you. As always, keep in mind this is what the fancy math thinks the chances for rain will be at these times, so reality on Friday and Saturday could look a little different.