A high-resolutionmodel, known as the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) has gotten snow fans talking this evening. It is showing a widespread area of snowmoving over much of NorthTexas by early Monday morning. Since a news station in D/FW has shared this information without sharing any off the details, I wanted to briefly provide an evening update. Right now, light to moderate snow has dumped between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch of snow on grassy areas in the Texas Panhandle. Roadways remain east of Amarillo, although I-40 west of town is having some issues. As we continue into early Monday, the storm system responsible for the snow will begin weakening. That combined with low moisture values over NorthTexas screams that any snow that occurs will not accumulate or become problematic for drivers.
The majority of model guidance continues to show that light snow will be possible along and north of Highway 380 in NorthTexas with flurries as far south as Interstate 20. I cannot rule out a dusting of snow in some areas, but it will melt within minutes of the snow falling. We’ll be here all night providing updates and will let you know if anything changes.
For what its worth, here is the model graphic I’m referring to in this blog post.
Very Cold Temperatures and Hard Freeze across Texas on Tuesday Morning
Even though we’ll be quite chilly tonight into Monday, we’re most concerned about the very coldtemperatures that will exist across all of Texas by Tuesdaymorning. As the very cold air settles into Texas and skies clear out, conditions will become ripe for radiation cooling on Tuesdaymorning. That means skies will be clear and winds will be light. Those two things allow surface heat to radiate upwards and thus cool the surface quickly. Freezing temperatures are likely south to the Interstate 10 corridor and parts of Deep SouthTexas. Below average lowtemperatures and the long duration nature of the coldtemperatures will create problems for exposed exterior piping, especially in the northern half of Texas where temperatures could fall below 25 degrees. Here is one of our weather model depictions of Tuesdaymorning‘s lowtemperatures.
Cold Front brings Storm/Rain Chances to East & Southeast Texas
As David posted yesterday evening, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of east and southeast Texas under a standard Slight Risk for severe weather today. Forcing along the frontal boundary later this afternoon where instability is highest will create an environment favorable for storm development this afternoon. In addition to storms forming ahead of the front, an area of high-based rain showers are predicted to develop behind the front during the late evening and overnight hours.
While the larger risk of more severe weather, including tornadoes, is in Lousiana and Arkansas, the SPC has left Texas in the 2% Tornado Risk area. Overall, the risk to of tornadoes developing in east Texas is very small. Hail up to golfball size and damaging winds around 60mph will be the main threat with some of the stronger storms out ahead of the front this evening and into the overnight hours. Once the front has passed, any storms that do develop behind it should bring just garden variety showers and good sleeping weather.
Below, I’ve attached a few graphics showing the areas of potential storms and rainfall this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be very much, but with our current drought conditions, any amount of rainfall will be greeted with open arms and Dr. Pepper. As always, keep in mind that this is where the calculus and computer models think the rain will form later today; however, reality may look a little different. This is just meant to give everyone an idea of where rain is expected this evening and during the overnight hours. ~Jenny
pm this evening
pm this evening
Forecast graphic for midnight tonight
Severe Weather Risk across East & Southeast Texas this Evening
The Storm Prediction Center has issued their standard severe weather risk for much of East and SoutheastTexas. This severe weather risk will be caused by the much anticipated cold front moving southeastward into an unstable, moist environment this evening. With the cold front will come the strong forcing needed to help develop a broken to solid line of thunderstorms, known as a squall line. The strongest storms in this squall line will be capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds over 60 MPH. Not all the storms will be that strong, though. If any thunderstorms develop ahead of the line or by themselves, they may be able to produce a brief tornado. The tornado threat is highest (relatively speaking) in Arkansas and Louisiana. This should not be a widespread or significant severe weather event, but another event of a few severestorms mixed in with heavy rain and other “garden” storms.