New forecast models came in last night bumping the timing of the cold front up just a bit pushing it through the northern parts of the state earlier in the day on Sunday versus Sunday night/Monday as previous runs had shown. Here’s one look at where the front is now projected to be by Sunday at around Noon. This is from the American (GFS) forecast model.
We’re still looking at the same discrepancies with the precipitation expected with this system in regards to rainfall and snow potential, but both models are still consistently developing rain/storm chances for southeastern parts of the state ahead of the cold front. I’ve provided two examples below…the first is from the American (GFS) forecast model for rainfall rates and locations predicted for Noon on Sunday. The second graphic below is for the same time frame, Noon on Sunday, but is from the European forecast Model (ECMWF). This model has been very consistent with bringing snow to the panhandle behind the front, whereas the GFS has not. It will likely be another day or two before those two settle their argument and come into more consistency.
GFS rain forecast at Noon on Sunday
Euro Model prediction for Rain/Snow at Noon on Sunday
One other trend we might be starting to see is a slight….slight….increase in the minimum temps expected. We will continue to monitor to see if that trend continues.
With increased confidence in this front arriving earlier than Monday, I guess Saturday will be the prep day for everyone. Temps look to be quite mild across the state on Saturday…a good opportunity to enjoy the outdoors and get all your stuff done before Old Man Winter blasts through!