The Storm Prediction Center has placed two separate areas in Texas under the standard risk of severe weather for Monday, June 11. Areas within the yellow shading zone have a 15 percent chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given location, like your house.
The first area is shown in graphic #1 with the southwestern panhandle and a portion of West Texas included in the standard risk. Thunderstorms will likely develop in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and push into West Texas during the early evening. That activity will be capable of producing hail up to the size of golfballs and damaging microburst winds around 60 MPH.
The second severe weather risk generally runs along and east from Gainesville to Denton, then along and north of a line from McKinney, Sulphur Springs, Mount Pleasant, to just south of Texarkana. In addition, much of Southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas is included in the standard severe weather risk. Thunderstorms will likely develop along a frontal boundary in Oklahoma and push southward. These storms or new storms that develop from their outflow could affect the Red River (generally from I-35 and points east) from 5 PM to 1 AM. While weak wind shear will limit a tornado threat, very high instability values will allow for these storms to become quite severe with hail up to the size of baseballs possible in the strongest storms. In addition, if thunderstorms are able to organized into a complex of thunderstorms the damaging wind threat would increase substantially. As I said, weak wind shear will limit the tornado threat. However, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
The severe weather risk will continue into Tuesday, but include much more of Northwest/North Texas. Stay tuned to our facebook/twitter pages along with our automated warning feed at www.facebook.com/TexasStormAlerts and on twitter @TexasStormAlert