We all know when we say we are not chasing that usually means we end up chasing anyway, at least that’s how it is for me. After looking at the models this evening and some other data it looks fairly likely we will have our first spring time severe weather event tomorrow across two separate areas. The “cold” core region up in OK/KS and the warm sector in AR, LA, MS, TN. We will be leaving Plano at about 10 AM tomorrow with an initial target area of N/NE OK. I’ll post an update when we are on the road.

- David

Our Video from Yesterday is now online! You can view it here!

Good Morning,

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock for the past 18 hours many of you know that we had our first “spring” tornado event in Oklahoma yesterday. There is the potential for these events to happen every spring but rarely do they actually verify in something like we had yesterday. So far we have counted three tornadoes that we captured on video just north of Interstate 40 on Highway 183. Last year we had six tornadoes so we are already have way to our tornado count last year. Yesterday was an event that does not happen very often. You have to get everything to come together exactly right to see a cyclic supercell drop tornado after tornado in that environment. Needless to say, I’m pretty happy at this point.

There is the potential for another event tomorrow in Eastern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. While this morning’s models looked great I unfortunately have prior commitments that must take precedence over chasing. Im fairly sure Connor is in the same boat. If it starts to look like a major event then I’m sure I can work something out but after yesterday my case of SDS (Supercell Deficit Syndrome) is long gone.

I’ll try to post another update tonight regarding tomorrow if it looks interesting. Thanks for stopping by!

- David Reimer

Good Morning,

The 12Z NAM and GFS have come in with a stronger system then the 0Z runs last night. This combined with N. TX becoming dry slotted overnight has allowed for more dynamics to come together. Instability is going to be about 1200 to 1500 J/Kg which is higher then the expected 500-750 J/Kg. This combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50’s should allow for a pretty good day if we can get convection. Right now we think we will. We’re going to be heading up 287 towards the Vernon area and adjust our target en-route. It would not surprise me at all if we end up in Oklahoma by this evening. Stay tuned. We’re going to head out at about 11 AM so Ill have another update by noon.

- David Reimer

Good Morning,

This will be a short update. We will be chasing today, thus I have updated our chase status. Our plan is to leave Plano by 11:30 AM and head towards the Texas Panhandle or Western Oklahoma. This has a high bust potential but it also has the potential to be a great chase. This year Connor and I will be switching roles so I’ll be managing the computer and live stream thus you can expect more updates on our social media feeds during the chase, which you can find at the bottom of the site. You can also track us via GPS up in the Live Streaming section. We will be streaming today and I’ll post a note about it when we are infact doing so. Stay tuned!

- David

With tonight’s NAM, all of a sudden the thinking has shifted from a possible cold core setup in southwestern Oklahoma to a warm sector play (if you consider 65F warm) in central Texas. The NAM is currently showing CAPE around 1500 J/Kg, with dewpoints in the low 60s and a decent hodograph just northwest of Austin. If I had to determine a target based off of tonight’s NAM, I think I would try to be near Fredericksburg, TX, in the late afternoon. Fortunately there is still plenty of time for us to figure out what is really going to happen, so there’s no need to do a really detailed analysis until Sunday or so.

I posted the other day about potential for a chase this weekend, and that system is still progged to enter the southern plains soon, but now it looks like if there is a chase, it will be this Monday. The GFS shows a scenario that I’m not too fond of. If it verifies, we will probably have a weak dryline with marginal instability moving through the I-35 corridor early Monday afternoon. The ECMWF has been much more consistent on timing though, and it shows a more chaseable setup, with the dryline farther west during the day Monday.  I’ll go into more detail as the event gets closer, but right now it’s looking like we might have our first chase of the Spring in just a few more days!

- Scroll down to see the discussion Connor posted earlier this afternoon –

This AFD is from FWD  for the event.

THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASS BY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL HOLD ONTO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT-
RANGE SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY...A DRYLINE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.

WE WILL BE CARRYING SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS WITH JET DYNAMICS
INCREASING AND A STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE PATTERN
SETUP FOR MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...95+KT JET JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70KTS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

This AFD is from SJT

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES
DID NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

This AFD is from LUB

.LONG TERM...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /00Z THU/ THE REGION WILL BE AT THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY.  MOST OF THIS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH STRONG PVA ACROSS
KS/NE LATE FRIDAY.  UL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY
ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY AS
STRONGER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION.  A WEAK DRYLINE COULD SET UP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY. MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF DEEPER LOW PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/GEM IMPACTING OUR
AREA ABOUT A DAY FASTER /SUNDAY/ THAN THE ECWMF WHICH HOLDS STORM
CHANCES OFF UNTIL MONDAY. WILL LEAN A BIT SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS PER THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWS THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS.

Meteorological Spring began yesterday, and immediately it looks like we might have our first chase coming up on Sunday! The GFS has been remarkably consistent in bringing a powerful trough into the southern plains this weekend, and the ECMWF and GFS are starting to come into much better agreement on the timing of the system. At five days out a lot will change, but the way it looks now, a nice dryline will setup across west Texas, with mid-50s dewpoints on the east side of it.  The best low level jet is displaced to the east of the best instability, which at this time looks to be around 1500 J/Kg of CAPE just along the dryline. It’s too early to analyze details, but if the GFS is right, we will probably be around Lubbock this Sunday, and the ECMWF shows a very similar scenario about 24 hours later. Keep checking back for updates, because Spring is finally here!

With meteorological spring starting tomorrow and the potential for our first spring system to arrive by this weekend I’ve gone ahead and restored the usual chase look to the website. You’ll notice the chase status on the right has returned from last year along with the GPS map. I’ll be working more this afternoon on adding some things as I think of them.

We’re in late February now. Last year by this time we have had at least two chases with measurable results. So far this year none. Now there has been a major tornado outbreak in East Texas but THAT’S EAST TEXAS where the only thing you can see is the base of a tree and a flooded field in the middle of it. It’s currently just over 45F here in Dallas while Connor is in Houston enjoying temperatures in the 60’s. I for one am tired of it! Bring on Spring!

Starting next Thursday thru Saturday I will be attending the National Severe Weather Workshop in Norman. I attended for the first time last year and am happy to be attending again and hopefully meet up with some other chasers and educators. It even counts as a college trip since there’s normally a trip to the NWS which is in O/U. Isnt it nice when things work out? So if you’re going to be in attendance shoot me a message on facebook or just hit me up by email (david_reimer@texasstormchasers) and we can meet up while I’m up there.

Anyway, most of you dont care about that. Lets move onto what really matters. The potential for our first spring time severe weather event. I’m calling it event as a very lose term. The fact is this potential event is looking to come next weekend and the way the models have played in the past, It may snow instead. However, I dont think it will for once. Here’s the reason.

The above chart shows the Arctic Oscillation for the past three months along with a 14 day forecast from the current date (February 26). Notice the last time we got above neutral was back on December 2, 2009. Since then we have been strongly negative with one of the most historic if not the most historic winter in the past twenty five years across the United States. I for one know I wont forget the 15 inches of snow in my backyard in FREAKIN DALLAS! So we are going positive/neutral. That’s one sign that we are heading towards a pattern change. As such the models have begun to hint at a severe weather day on March 7. They have done more then hinted infact. Here’s the GEM (Canadian Model) for 0Z Monday (6 PM Sunday). This is off the 0Z Run.

As you can see the 0Z GEM has a 997 MB low sitting in SE CO with a very warm airmass sitting over TX. If this scenario was to play out a fairly significant severe weather event would be possible in parts of Texas. Now lets take a look at the 12Z GFS.

First off – Ignore the precipitation plotted on the map. Notice the GFS also has a sub-1000 MB low pressure indicated for Sunday. Let me point out now that this is all 228 hours out. This is complete voodoo. The setup will change and if the surface lows and features on these maps end up in the exact location the models are pinpointing it will be a minor miracle, but since they are being so consistent I thought I’d throw these maps out anyway. For a temperature comparison here’s the 500-1000 MB thickness comparison.

(map from TwisterData)

The GFS is not as warm as the GEM obviously. At this point all the models are going to have a different solution but the potential is on the table for our first Springtime System to move through around March 7th. The models have been showing this for several days now so its something to keep an eye on and trust me, all the southern plains chasers are keeping a very close eye on it. Anyway stay tuned Ill have another update in the next few days on this system. Have a good weekend!

- David Reimer