Good morning and happy Monday! As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, rain chances this week will be mainly confined to the western, Rio Grande, southwest and south Texas regions of the state as a weak upper level low continues to slowly drift east and basically stall across northern Mexico. Instability values look just a little stronger today than yesterday which will likely lead to greater coverage of showers and a few strong storms by later this afternoon, especially for areas west of Midland/Odessa in and around the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few storms could contain small hail, gusty winds and heavy downpours leading to a few gully-washers. In addition to the upper level low affecting this area, a weak cold front is expected to drop down into the northern panhandle and stall out somewhere just south of Amarillo by this afternoon. This subtle boundary is also expected to spark up a few showers and storms between Amarillo and Lubbock by around 2 to 3pm this afternoon.
Highs today, once again at or above seasonal normals for this time of year…a pattern we’ll be stuck with at least through the end of the work week and most likely through the weekend as well. The only exception to this will be the eastern portions of the state which will be more likely to feel the impacts of a weak cold front expected to pass east of the state and dragging drier air along with it. Here temps will tend to climb to just above normal during the day, but the drier air will allow additional cooling overnight and some very pleasant sleeping weather temps.
In other news…an area of low pressure in the southwestern Bay of Campeche is being monitored for possible tropical storm development in the next two or three days. What will this mean for Texas? Probably nothing as we’ve got a strong upper level system moving our way with wind patterns not conducive to bringing a tropical system into the northern Gulf or near the coast. Nevertheless, we will continue to monitor this and keep you up to date on its development and track as you can’t ever turn your back on these things!