I didnt really release much information on earlier in the day in Oklahoma since we had just seen three tornadoes but we did infact almost see one much earlier in the Afternoon. This video was recorded at about 1 PM just off US-70 in Cotton County, Oklahoma. The car in front of us is Shane Adams/Bridget (www.passiontwist.com). Up to that point I had not seen such extreme motion so I was in awe. This video shows how fast things can change.



We have the Hammon Tornado video online under the March 8th Chase Page. Check it out along with our videos from last year!

- David

The March 8, 2010 and March 10, 2010 pages are online along with a new, extended March 8th Tornado video online. Check it out by visiting those pages!
In the next few days I’ll be doing some additional work on the website along with migrating past videos over to the new chase youtube account. When everything is complete with that then Ill speak more about it.

Thanks for stopping by!

- David

We all know when we say we are not chasing that usually means we end up chasing anyway, at least that’s how it is for me. After looking at the models this evening and some other data it looks fairly likely we will have our first spring time severe weather event tomorrow across two separate areas. The “cold” core region up in OK/KS and the warm sector in AR, LA, MS, TN. We will be leaving Plano at about 10 AM tomorrow with an initial target area of N/NE OK. I’ll post an update when we are on the road.

- David

Our Video from Yesterday is now online! You can view it here!

Good Morning,

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock for the past 18 hours many of you know that we had our first “spring” tornado event in Oklahoma yesterday. There is the potential for these events to happen every spring but rarely do they actually verify in something like we had yesterday. So far we have counted three tornadoes that we captured on video just north of Interstate 40 on Highway 183. Last year we had six tornadoes so we are already have way to our tornado count last year. Yesterday was an event that does not happen very often. You have to get everything to come together exactly right to see a cyclic supercell drop tornado after tornado in that environment. Needless to say, I’m pretty happy at this point.

There is the potential for another event tomorrow in Eastern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas. While this morning’s models looked great I unfortunately have prior commitments that must take precedence over chasing. Im fairly sure Connor is in the same boat. If it starts to look like a major event then I’m sure I can work something out but after yesterday my case of SDS (Supercell Deficit Syndrome) is long gone.

I’ll try to post another update tonight regarding tomorrow if it looks interesting. Thanks for stopping by!

- David Reimer

Good Morning,

The 12Z NAM and GFS have come in with a stronger system then the 0Z runs last night. This combined with N. TX becoming dry slotted overnight has allowed for more dynamics to come together. Instability is going to be about 1200 to 1500 J/Kg which is higher then the expected 500-750 J/Kg. This combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50’s should allow for a pretty good day if we can get convection. Right now we think we will. We’re going to be heading up 287 towards the Vernon area and adjust our target en-route. It would not surprise me at all if we end up in Oklahoma by this evening. Stay tuned. We’re going to head out at about 11 AM so Ill have another update by noon.

- David Reimer

Good Morning,

This will be a short update. We will be chasing today, thus I have updated our chase status. Our plan is to leave Plano by 11:30 AM and head towards the Texas Panhandle or Western Oklahoma. This has a high bust potential but it also has the potential to be a great chase. This year Connor and I will be switching roles so I’ll be managing the computer and live stream thus you can expect more updates on our social media feeds during the chase, which you can find at the bottom of the site. You can also track us via GPS up in the Live Streaming section. We will be streaming today and I’ll post a note about it when we are infact doing so. Stay tuned!

- David

With tonight’s NAM, all of a sudden the thinking has shifted from a possible cold core setup in southwestern Oklahoma to a warm sector play (if you consider 65F warm) in central Texas. The NAM is currently showing CAPE around 1500 J/Kg, with dewpoints in the low 60s and a decent hodograph just northwest of Austin. If I had to determine a target based off of tonight’s NAM, I think I would try to be near Fredericksburg, TX, in the late afternoon. Fortunately there is still plenty of time for us to figure out what is really going to happen, so there’s no need to do a really detailed analysis until Sunday or so.

I posted the other day about potential for a chase this weekend, and that system is still progged to enter the southern plains soon, but now it looks like if there is a chase, it will be this Monday. The GFS shows a scenario that I’m not too fond of. If it verifies, we will probably have a weak dryline with marginal instability moving through the I-35 corridor early Monday afternoon. The ECMWF has been much more consistent on timing though, and it shows a more chaseable setup, with the dryline farther west during the day Monday.  I’ll go into more detail as the event gets closer, but right now it’s looking like we might have our first chase of the Spring in just a few more days!

- Scroll down to see the discussion Connor posted earlier this afternoon –

This AFD is from FWD  for the event.

THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASS BY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL HOLD ONTO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS UPPER SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT-
RANGE SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY...A DRYLINE WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.

WE WILL BE CARRYING SOME LOW POPS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS WITH JET DYNAMICS
INCREASING AND A STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE PATTERN
SETUP FOR MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...95+KT JET JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70KTS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

This AFD is from SJT

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. DUE TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES
DID NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF THUNDER. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

This AFD is from LUB

.LONG TERM...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM /00Z THU/ THE REGION WILL BE AT THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY.  MOST OF THIS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH STRONG PVA ACROSS
KS/NE LATE FRIDAY.  UL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY
ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY AS
STRONGER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION.  A WEAK DRYLINE COULD SET UP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME WITH A FAIRLY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY. MOIST ADVECTION KICKS IN
ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF DEEPER LOW PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONSIDERABLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/GEM IMPACTING OUR
AREA ABOUT A DAY FASTER /SUNDAY/ THAN THE ECWMF WHICH HOLDS STORM
CHANCES OFF UNTIL MONDAY. WILL LEAN A BIT SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AS PER THE CHARACTERISTICS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWS THIS
TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
COLD AIR INTRUSIONS.

Meteorological Spring began yesterday, and immediately it looks like we might have our first chase coming up on Sunday! The GFS has been remarkably consistent in bringing a powerful trough into the southern plains this weekend, and the ECMWF and GFS are starting to come into much better agreement on the timing of the system. At five days out a lot will change, but the way it looks now, a nice dryline will setup across west Texas, with mid-50s dewpoints on the east side of it.  The best low level jet is displaced to the east of the best instability, which at this time looks to be around 1500 J/Kg of CAPE just along the dryline. It’s too early to analyze details, but if the GFS is right, we will probably be around Lubbock this Sunday, and the ECMWF shows a very similar scenario about 24 hours later. Keep checking back for updates, because Spring is finally here!